Marco Bernasconi, Director (l.), and Jürg Weber, Chairman of the Board of Directors of WEMF AG für Werbemedienforschung.
WW: The TV industry has been without usage data for almost six months. How would you describe this situation?
Marco Bernasconi: If the same thing were to happen to us, it would be a disaster for us. Jürg Weber: You could call it a catastrophe. Because the clients who rely on the data are faced with a black box. That is dramatic.
The print industry is also facing a new survey methodology (see box ). Iss such a catastrophe also possible?
Bernasconi: Not to the same extent. In contrast to Mediapulse, we have various advantages: We started our preparations three years ago. And we carried out a 1:1 test in economic areas 43 (ZH) and 12 (VD), which showed how the new methodology affects the results. The interim results now point in exactly the same direction. We were able to communicate this to all committees. As nothing inexplicable emerged, we know that the method is valid. Another advantage: our field study has been completed since the end of April and all the data is "in the box". What's more, our research committee, which consists of scientists and market researchers, accompanied the entire process from the beginning and checked every step. Nevertheless, we won't be popping the champagne until September 18.
There are basically two possible problem areas: Firstly, something can go wrong with the methodology, and secondly, you never know how the market will react. Firstly, we have the methodology under control. But you never know whether a customer will be dissatisfied with the data and take legal action.
You therefore do not rule out a super-provisional injunction against the release of the data.
Weaver: No. But if someone cannot comprehend a result, it is probably one of their own titles. He would therefore probably demand that it not be published. So there would hardly be a total blockade.
Until now, publishers did not have to wait for the semi-annual publication of MACH Basic: they were also able to obtain the quarterly interim results and were therefore always up to date with the readership trends of their titles. What is the situation now before MACH3: do publishers already know the interim results?
Bernasconi: Yes, most publishers know their group values, but only on the basis of the six-month and nine-month values. The values of the individual titles are being systematically communicated these days. Always with the reservation that something may still change.
This advance information is an important difference to Mediapulse.
It is actually very important. I could not have imagined that we would publish data without informing customers in advance. The matter is too complex for that.
Were there any publishers who did not agree with your interim results?
Weaver: Yes, but unlike the TV industry, our counterpart usually owns several titles. This is an advantage because the new survey then has different effects in the same publishing house depending on the title and circumstances. This means that the influences of the changed parameters can usually be explained quite well. I'll give just one example here: Because the interviewees now also see the title logos during the interviews, there is less risk of confusion. Of course, some titles suffer from this.
Is the assumption correct that primarily publishers of small-circulation and regional titles will have more trouble accepting the new figures?
Bernasconi: No, that's wrong.
Weaver: My impression is that the regional and local titles remain fairly stable. The typologies also remain fairly stable. However, there are individual titles where various factors play a role, in particular the reduced potential for confusion.
Some titles that used to have relatively many readers per copy now have fewer. So the currency is getting harder.
Nevertheless, the new method also contains explosive material: the number of interviews was reduced from 23,500 to 19,000 (-20%). This reduces the number of cases, particularly for small-circulation and regional titles.
Bernasconi: That is correct. We had to reduce the number of interviews for cost reasons. However, we have taken precautions by combining several survey periods for smaller titles and introducing a rolling process on the one hand and, on the other, by slightly disproportionately distributing the sample across the survey area. This will make the results more stable. And with 19,000 interviews, we are still outstanding in an international comparison.
Another point: thanks to the new recruitment method, around 20 percent of the population that could previously no longer be reached can be contacted again. This means that the universe once again corresponds to 100 percent of the population. At the same time, however, the number of interviews has been reduced by 20 percent. Together, these two factors mean that each interview now represents significantly more people and therefore each response has a greater impact on the results than before.
Bernasconi: The sample base was expanded to include target groups not previously reached, that is correct. This makes the survey even more representative than before. However, the universe has not increased - apart from the normal population growth. Due to the smaller sample size, however, the number of people for whom an interview represents is naturally larger (previously approx. 270, now approx. 330) and thus also the influence of the individual interview. But as I said, we are also doing very well internationally with this ratio.
So you have already been able to inform a large number of publishers about the interim results. Is no fundamental opposition to be expected from any of them?
Weaver: Anyone seeing the figures for the first time will naturally have questions. However, if you point out the changed parameters that can lead to a different result overall, acceptance usually increases.
You say as a rule. Are there exceptions?
Weaver: In some cases, we just had to have two or three conversations (laughs). That's understandable. After all, it is difficult to sell a security that has a lower index value than before.
During the interviews, we demonstrate how transparent our method is: the questionnaire can be viewed and we have inspectors who listen to the interviews at the market research institutes unannounced. In addition, every step of the process can be traced back. We also work with two different market research institutes. If the two institutes produce completely different results for one and the same title, the cause is investigated.
And how are you preparing for September 18?
Bernasconi: We have commissioned an international expert who is currently reviewing the entire methodology. She will be speaking at the Media Research Day on September 18.
Was this planned anyway - or is it a lesson from the TV debacle?
Bernasconi: It is a lesson. Because in itself, the Research Commission, which really does accompany us very consistently, would be enough for us.
Did you learn any other lessons from the Mediapulse situation?
Bernasconi: We attached great importance to communication right from the start - but even before that. This is greatly appreciated by our customers. But the problems with the TV panel confirmed to us how important communication is in such a process. And the fact that direct, early customer contact is necessary is certainly also a learning from Mediapulse. That's why we are still expanding communication: Publishers receive a Q&A (questions & answers) from us as well as other support material - this as an argumentation aid for the Marketing&Sales departments vis-à-vis the media and advertising agencies.
Mr. Weber, does it help with communication that you, as publisher of the Neue Luzerner Zeitung, are at the top of the WEMF and can say: I also have several titles, one of which wins and the other loses.
Weaver: Of course, it is an advantage if you can argue on the basis of experience in your own portfolio. But I am not the only publisher on the WEMF Board of Directors.
Bernasconi: There are also people on the User Commission and the Research Commission who have been delegated there from the publishers. All of these people are now on the runway and communicate within their publishing house, but of course also within the industry.
Weaver: In addition, we opened up the Board of Directors and the User Commission to the client side around three years ago. This also increased the credibility of communication.
Speaking of publishers and media research: In the TV industry, it was primarily the publishers' TV channels that turned their backs on Mediapulse - including your Tele 1, Mr. Weber. Does this mean that MACH3 must also expect resistance from publishers?
Weaver: I think it's completely legitimate for publishers to be critical of figures that they can't understand. It really was a problem that the TV channels were faced with a fait accompli from one day to the next. False expectations were certainly created beforehand. But a 1:1 test would have been better - that would probably have defused the situation.
But it's a tricky situation for you: you are the Chairman of the Board of Directors of a regional TV station that opposes the new TV research, and at the same time you are trying to make a new research method palatable to the print industry.
Weaver: To be fair, I have to say that I'm staying out of the TV research problem. I leave that to the operational people at Tele 1 and Telesuisse, the regional TV association. But what happened at Mediapulse was fundamentally different from what will happen here.
Does the conflict surrounding TV research also affect the image of other media research, such as that of the WEMF?
Bernasconi: We fear that this will - to a certain extent - rub off on other industry research organizations. However, WEMF has a very solid and trustworthy image of quality. Publishers and the advertising industry know that we are independent and neutral and that our methods meet global standards. However, we have had to step up our communication efforts as a result of these incidents and, above all, emphasize the aspect of transparency that is customary for the WEMF.
Let's summarize: The most important asset of media research is trust. How do you establish this?
Weaver: By providing reliable data for years in advance. It also requires good preparation and good communication - and that you back yourself up with a research commission and expert reports.
Bernasconi: Continuity is important, but trust is also built on people: In Harald Amschler, we have a Head of Research who enjoys an extremely good international reputation. And then, once again, it comes down to communication: We communicated at an early stage, provided outlooks and continually showed where we stood in the development process. Such transparency creates trust.
Interview: Markus Knöpfli