These are the findings of a study commissioned by the Federal Office of Communications (OFCOM) and published on Friday - one of six on the future of the media in Switzerland. The studies were mainly carried out by the University of Zurich, the Zurich University of Applied Sciences and Ecoplan.
The media industry's interest groups have until 11 March to comment on the six studies commissioned on the basis of a postulate by National Councillor Hans-Jürg Fehr (SP/SH). The postulate calls for a Federal Council report on the future prospects of the print media. Against the backdrop of the trend towards increased media convergence, OFCOM has expanded on the question formulated by National Councillor Fehr and commissioned media studies on the situation of the press and electronic media. The Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications (DETEC) will draw up a report based on the results of this research. The Federal Council is expected to discuss this report before the summer vacations in 2011.
Radio and television can hold their own
The forecast of audience demand up to 2015 reveals a differentiated picture for the print, radio, television and online genres, according to one of the studies, some of which run to several hundred pages. The decline in the number of titles in newsstand newspapers will continue, and the average daily circulation will also continue to fall. In contrast, radio usage is expected to remain relatively constant over the forecast period. The differences between the parts of the country with higher radio usage in German-speaking Switzerland and higher television usage in Latin Switzerland will remain.
In the print media, even more concentration processes and expansions of the coated newspaper and broadsheet systems are to be expected with scarce resources. The subscription press in particular is suffering from the collapse in circulation figures, reach and advertising revenue.
Hesitant increase in advertising
Nevertheless, a somewhat more positive trend in advertising revenue can be expected by 2015 after the crisis years of 2008 and 2009. According to the authors, this applies in particular to broadcasting, which has weathered the crisis better than the press. Overall, a gradual recovery and a hesitant increase can be forecast. However, the positive development is largely due to the expected economic recovery rather than structural influences.
Despite the economic recovery, advertising income for the press is expected to continue to fall. However, the latest advertising statistics are optimistic, and the past has shown that advertising revenues from print and broadcasting tend to move in the same direction. It is therefore conceivable that the mathematical forecast for the print sector paints too pessimistic a picture of advertising revenue development.