According to the figures published on Monday by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, which are still provisional, sales in the Swiss retail sector rose by 0.1 percent in nominal terms. In real terms, i.e. excluding inflation, the increase was 0.8 percent.
According to the data, the measures taken to combat the Corona pandemic had very different effects on the various sectors of the economy. For example, the food and beverage trade benefited primarily from the impassable borders, which prevented shopping tourism, and the closed restaurants and bars. Other segments, such as clothing or shoes, on the other hand, suffered from the lockdown of the corresponding stores.
Booming Internet trade
Overall, the retail trade in food, beverages and tobacco recorded nominal sales growth of 8.5 percent, according to the FSO figures. In particular, the "mail order and internet trade" (+14.1%), "information and communication technology equipment" (+13.8%) and "other household appliances, textiles, DIY and home furnishings" (+2.2%) sectors saw much stronger demand in the Corona year 2020.
The non-food sector, on the other hand, recorded a 4.7 percent drop in sales. The FSO sectors "service stations" (-16.1%), "other goods" such as clothing, pharmacies, watches and jewelry (-12.5%) and "publishing products, sports equipment and toys" (-7.1%) were hit hardest by the crisis.
Development in the current year 2021 is likely to continue to depend on the course of the Corona pandemic. As long as bars and restaurants remain closed and travel abroad is also subject to restrictions, sales in the food sector are likely to benefit in principle and suffer in non-food retail.
Base effect leads to slowdown in 2021
However, the current lockdown is likely to be followed by renewed pent-up consumption, which will support retail sales, retail specialist Tiziana Hunziker of Credit Suisse told the AWP news agency. However, as travel is expected to increase compared to the previous year - also thanks to progress on vaccinations - the recovery in the non-food segment after the lockdown is unlikely to be quite as dynamic as in the spring.
Overall, CS economists expect retail sales to decline by 1.7 percent in 2021. According to a study published a month ago, sales in the food and near-food sector are likely to fall by 6 percent after a very strong year in 2020. So the talk here is mainly of a base effect.
The sales trend in many segments was so positive in 2020 that a return to these levels in 2021 seems unlikely under normal circumstances, the study said. This is all the more the case in the absence of driving forces for the retail trade such as higher wages and immigration.
This would be felt above all by those segments that grew strongly in 2020 compared with the previous year: In addition to food retail, these include do-it-yourself, garden and automotive accessories, home electronics, personal care and health, and leisure.
Internet trade should continue to benefit from the tailwind from the Corona crisis. For the past year, CS economists estimate growth of 55 percent to 16 billion Swiss francs in Internet orders. (SDA)