Switzerland now also has an advertising market studyBy Markus Knöpfli If the augurs at Basel-based Prognos AG are right, the economy will pick up again in mid-2002 and the Swiss advertising market will recover in 2003. In their study "Advertising Market Switzerland 2011", they also see TV and out-of-home advertising and - at a much lower level - online advertising as winners. Print, on the other hand, continues to lose market share.
In their forecasts, the renowned Basel-based futurologists assume that the war in Afghanistan will not develop into a conflagration and that everything will return to "normality" after the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon in Washington DC on September 11. "Although the world has been upside down for some time now, we believe that the economy is much more stable than the public seems to think," said Josef Trappel at the presentation of the first long-term advertising market study for Switzerland. Trappel is project manager of the study at Prognos.
Despite his calmness, Trappel assumes that a kind of year of mourning will now follow. The gross domestic product (GDP) continues to fall and will only increase again in the second half of 2002. "From 2003 onwards, people will make up for their postponed consumption," says Trappel. Over the whole of next year, however, GDP growth will only amount to one percent in real terms. The Swiss advertising market is behaving similarly, not picking up again until 2003, but then by an impressive 7 percent. And subsequently it will (again) grow faster than GDP.
Two traditional advertising media, TV and posters, are not taking this dive: Their annual growth rates remain positive. According to Prognos, net TV advertising sales will grow from CHF 536 million (2001) to CHF 692 million (2005), finally reaching CHF 881 million in 2011. Poster advertising increased from CHF 610 million (2001) to CHF 723 million (2005). All other advertising media, including the Internet, did not recover until 2003, but then even exceeded their figures from the super advertising year 2000.
Prognos maintains its predictions for Internet advertising
Although newspapers will remain the largest advertising medium, their market share will fall from 46.3 percent (2001) to 44.1 percent (2002). Print as a whole will grow less strongly than the overall advertising market until 2005; the same applies to radio, which is expected to increase from 135 to 153 million francs in the same period.
As far as online advertising is concerned, the forecasters are surprisingly sticking to earlier predictions. The only difference is that they postpone the start of growth by two years to 2003, but then the curve rises rapidly in line with earlier forecasts. Accordingly, online advertising suddenly more than doubles in 2003, reaches CHF 90 million in 2005 and doubles again by 2011. This optimism is primarily based on new online advertising forms and techniques that allow cheaper and more creative production. One example mentioned was Flash technology, which makes it possible to produce a campaign for electronic image media in a media-neutral way (see also p. 18).
New services create new advertising pressure
Otherwise, however, the merging of different media - known as convergence - is still a long way off, partly because the necessary broadband access is lacking. According to Prognos, around half of all households will have such access by 2011. But even if new, interactive TV formats are created as a result, Trappel doubts whether viewers will keep pace with the technology. "We are rather cautious about this," he said.
However, new companies and services will undoubtedly emerge, which will increase advertising pressure. And Trappel sees this as an opportunity for the advertising market. However, with one caveat: "Advertising marketing must acquire the necessary expertise in good time," he says, pointing out deficits that already exist today.
Clients and sponsors

The 2011 advertising market study was conducted by Prognos AG on behalf of Sevenone Media Switzerland. Its TV marketing partners RMB Switzerland and IP Multimedia contributed to the costs as sponsors. The study is to be updated annually. Prognos has already been preparing a similar study for Germany for three years and one for Austria for the past year.
Forecast net advertising revenues by media type

in CHF million 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Newspapers 2 250 2 179 2 132 2 261 2 332 2 394
Consumer magazines 379 387 377 398 410 420
Trade press 404 403 397 422 436 449
Television (incl. sponsorship) 520 536 544 599 640 692
Radio (incl. sponsorship) 139 135 133 143 149 153
Outdoor advertising 592 610 627 687 725 763
Other advertising media 436 438 428 449 460 470
Online advertising 25 21 21 44 67 90
Total 4,745 4,708 4,661 5,003 5,220 5,430
Inflation rate in % 1.1 1.0 1.6 1.7 1.7GDP nominal growth in % 2.7 2.0 3.4 3.5 3.5
GDP nominal in CHF bn 404 415 424 438 454 470
Source: 2000 Wemf, Prognos AG
Forecast until 2011

2005 2011 Change 2005/2011
GDP nominal in CHF bn 470 572 Ø growth 3.3% p. a.
Inflation rate Ø 1.7% p.a.
Net advertising sales in CHF billion 5.4 6.8 Ø growth 3.9% p. a.
Television advertising in million CHF 692 881 Ø growth 4.1% p. a.
Market share in % 12.7 12.9
Online advertising in CHF million 90 198 Ø growth 14.0% p. a.
Market share in % 1.6 2.9
Source: Prognos AG

Objective: To communicate the new offer from Tages-Anzeiger and Interhome AG that vacation apartments can be booked online.Interhome advertising material: Internet presence. Use: Since October until further notice.
Client: Interhome AG, Zurich; overall responsibility: Carsten Jochem. Marketing agency: AdLink Internet Media AG, Zurich; Planning: Stephan Suter.

Objective: Launch and publicize the new online store for outlet products in the IT and hi-fi sector and generate online purchases.COS Distribution advertising media: banner, button, mini-banner. Use: October/November.
Client: COS Distribution AG; Responsibility: Yves Busslinger. Agency: Compugrafx, Charles Santl. Placement agency: Publimedia Webadvertising AG, Zurich; responsibility: Conrad Surber.

Lowe Linta's GGK establishes Orange as a business brand in Hong KongThe telecoms company Orange is beginning to diversify its brand image: Following the launch of an independent SMS presence and a campaign for the Habbo Hotel (see WW 38/01), another divisional campaign has now been launched that has not frozen its content in the pack ice off Greenland.With the new presence designed by the agency Lowe Lintas GGK, Zurich, Orange is entering the mobile corporate communications business. The atmospheric print ads, which are intended to establish Orange as a competent partner for SMEs in particular, are set in Hong Kong, the city of a thousand small and medium-sized enterprises. At the center of the visuals, whose atmosphere implies Orange's brand values, is the proverbial Chinese business acumen. page 12

In Switzerland, 395 euros per capita will be spent this year on advertising in traditional media and on the Internet. This puts Switzerland at the top of the ranking of European countries, as detailed in the status report by the TV marketing company IP Deutschland. Norway (339 euros) and Austria (259 euros) trail significantly behind in second and third place, respectively. Advertising spending is lowest in Greece, at 58 euros per capita. Swissair Campaign by Jobwinner. Against the backdrop of the largest wave of layoffs in Swiss economic history, Jobwinner.ch spontaneously decided to support Swissair employees in their job search. The job platform is granting employers free access to the profiles on its database through the end of the year. The campaign is being publicized by Guye Benker. To this end, the advertising agency has persuasively and strikingly merged the Swissair logo with the word «solidarity.» The campaign has been a success, as more than 350 companies have already come forward with job offers for laid-off Swissair employees. Conversely, a total of 3,500 job seekers are profiled on the portal, of whom 600 Swissair employees had found jobs as a result of the solidarity campaign by the time of this issue’s publication.
The Tax Vampire’s Check. «Need to have,» not «nice to have»—that has been the strategic mantra since the summer, guiding the execution of the *Bilanz* campaign. The visual concept, developed by Publicis in Zurich, dramatizes the main theme of each issue. The ad for the November issue shows a Bilanz reader holding up a cross to the tax vampire, which he has formed from two issues of the magazine. The motif was designed by Jean Etienne Aebi (Creative Director), Daniel Krieg (Copywriter), Luigi Del Medico (Art Director), and Raul Serrat (Graphic Designer).
WHS Feud with Berlin Partner. The partnership between Weber Hodel Schmid (WHS) and the Berlin-based agency Melle Pufe could soon come to an end. After Hendrik Melle announced in W&V that the two «engaged agencies» would soon have to decide between a wedding or an amicable breakup, WHS co-owner Reinhold Weber expressed his annoyance. WHS itself had barely benefited from the partnership. «I assume we’ll sort this out ourselves now,» Weber said, «I’ll take the brand back from him.»
Formula 1 poster in Bern. In the run-up to a nostalgia race marking the 50th anniversary of the 1951 Grand Prix Bern, the Bern Historical Museum was able to acquire at auction the poster for the now legendary Formula 1 race—which took place at the time on the circuit in Bremgartenwald. The museum received generous support in its bid from the Allgemeine Plakatgesellschaft (APG), which sponsored this striking historical artifact. The auction at Stuker Auction House also turned into a neck-and-neck race, with the museum ultimately winning the bid for the poster for 13,000 francs. The handover by the APG has now been officially marked at a vernissage at the Bern Museum. Ernst Rupprecht’s work will be on display in the permanent exhibition «Change in Everyday Life.».
The FAZ congratulates Jost Wirz. Jost Wirz, Chairman of the Board of Directors and Head of the Wirz Partner Holding advertising group, turned 60 on October 25. The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) was among those offering congratulations. It honored Jost Wirz with a brief profile in its Wednesday edition. «Although Jost Wirz is anything but a flamboyant person, he has by no means become an inconspicuous figure in the Swiss advertising scene,» writes the FAZ. Wirz has always strived for solid and intellectually sophisticated communication.
Enjoying life. With a series of innovations, the WoZ aims to make the left-wing weekly an increasingly trendy must-read, especially for young readers. A dedicated sports page, a science page every two weeks, and regular critical takes on the media are intended to transform the formerly revolutionary political rag into a revamped general-interest newspaper featuring contemporary, open journalism. To ensure this facelift can take the media stage without losing face, Seiler DDB has now designed a poster campaign that also aims to «set new trends.» The WoZ writes just like everyone else—but a little differently.
Editorial

Kairos in Media Planning: The philosophers of ancient Greece distinguished more precisely than we do between three concepts of time: Chronos, Kairos, and Aeon. Chronos is time that flows uniformly and unchanging. Aeon is eternity within time. And Kairos is the right moment, bestowed by the gods, which we can seize—or let slip away unused. There’s no doubt about it: Time is not only the great question of destiny in philosophy; it is also a «question of destiny» in media planning. When it comes to media placement, it’s all about kairos—finding the right moment to position advertising messages in the market. To answer this question, “Recency Planning” was developed in the U.S. It promises temporal proximity to the purchase decision and is intended to replace all the central concepts of classical media research—especially the myth of the effective contact dose—which still dominate the understanding of advertising effectiveness in Europe. In media planning, recency is what kairos was in Greek philosophy. The temporal, spatial, and emotional proximity of the advertising exposure to the act of purchase is the decisive factor in the purchase impact of advertising. In the U.S., this planning approach—which has revolutionized advertising effectiveness research—enjoys immense popularity.
In late September, Publimedia hosted a forum in Zurich on the topic of recency planning. Erwin Ephron, the creator of this media strategy, unfortunately had to cancel at the last minute. Wolfgang J. Koschnick spoke with the American media guru about the strengths and weaknesses of recency planning. You can read the interview on page 37. Samuel Helbling

Once again, the following was announced at the Giesserei in Zurich-Oerlikon: "Place your bets!" and "Rien ne va plus!" By Beat Fritsch The SonntagsZeitung hosted the Gambling Night, which has already become a tradition.
The rules are well known: Each invited guest receives a not inconsiderable amount of starting capital and is allowed to compete against the SonntagsZeitung executives at the gaming table. In other words, publishing director Sandra Geiger or Daniel Pauletto sit opposite you as croupiers at blackjack and gamble. Just like in everyday life, right? And whoever has the most money at the end wins - but not money. But a weekend trip to a casino near the border. Which makes more sense at the moment, given the Federal Council's decision on casinos, we will probably never see a real gambling temple in Zurich in the next few decades.
The best Gambling Night player this year was Stephan Küng. He won an exorbitantly high prize of over three million Lucky Dollars. Finally a real customer again, said the SonntagsZeitungs crew with relief. Last year, the first prize went to an advertising manager and the year before last to an advertising agency owner. Küng, on the other hand, is CEO of the media agency Initiative Media and is likely to book as many sales with the SonntagsZeitung as the points he scored. Second place this year went to Urs Arnold from the Allianz Group. Myrtha Hafner, who works for Andy Lehmann at the newly founded Mediahaus Seefeld, came third.
The Unisono team led by Monica Peter and Simon Schweingruber was once again responsible for organizing the games night. As always, Ronnie Scholom from ShowConnection provided the gaming tables and the cards for the croupiers from SonntagsZeitung. They all enjoy the complete trust of Sandra Geiger, who, by the way, is having a pretty tough time at the moment. After the night of gambling, she is now going back to school for a few days. She left for the United States on Monday for a further education program. But only after she had already attended her first appointments early in the morning after the gambling night.
Reto Kammermann, who is inviting his customers to the Touring Rock and Rave Night next week, stuck with Claudia Eggenschwiler and Siegrun Meier for the game. However, they had no chance against star player Küng, even though they had put their stakes together. Peter Döbeli and Pick-Pay advertising manager Sandra Ulrich were also unlucky. And also WerbeWoche. The shortlist author quintupled his fortune in the first 15 minutes of the game, but then it went straight down for a while and finally to zero in just two minutes.
Other guests gambled away their stakes right at the start in such a frivolous manner, only to take advantage of the buffet and bar subito. The liquid offer was generous, and platters of delicious snacks were repeatedly passed around.
So it's not surprising that some visitors were even able to talk their way out of the Lucky Dollars on offer. In fact, some guests simply used the event to have a chat with colleagues without worrying about the pecuniary events at the gaming table. And as is the case after every Gambling Night, everyone, players and non-players alike, went home satisfied.
Beat Fritsch

once again indulged in boundless pleasure at the SonntagsZeitung's Gambling Night. This event is always worthwhile. Where else can you get addicted to gambling with free money (and the shortlist author is anyway)? Where else can you get the freshest rolled puros from Master Jesus Dinerad from Honduras, who always has the best tobacco leaves in his luggage?
As always, we track down those in the communications industry who play the game as homo ludens or are otherwise seen at events on a weekly basis. Do you already have something to report? Pick up the phone (01 296 97 98) or hit the keys ([email protected]). Event tips and further shortlist images are available online at www.werbewoche.ch.

Objective: To publicize the new "Natel easy kid" product and convey product information using various advertising media.Swisscom Mobile advertising media: Full banner, skyscraper, D-HTML. Use: November/December.
Client: Swisscom Mobile AG, Bern. Marketing agency: Publimedia Webadvertising AG, Zurich; responsibility: Tiziano Obrecht.

Publishers and journalists clash over pay rises.news Dispute over journalists' wages
While Comedia and the Swiss Association of Journalists (SVJ) are demanding a 1.5 percent increase in minimum wages and a general inflation allowance of 3.5 percent, the Swiss Press Association (VSP) has only offered a zero increase. Negotiations will be held again in mid-November.
Sat 1 Switzerland expands its sports offering In December, Sat 1 Switzerland launches a new weekly sports magazine. In addition to reports from the snowboarding scene, "Powderhausen-TV" also offers information on trend sports from all over the world. As part of the soccer World Cup from May 31 to June 30, 2002, Sat 1 is producing a daily World Cup magazine especially for Switzerland.
RMB lowers prices for Sat 1 TV marketer RMB Switzerland is lowering the rates for the Sat 1 program window by around nine percent as of 2002. "Last year we allowed ourselves to be blinded by overly euphoric targets," explains Tarkan Özküp, Chief Sales Officer of RMB Switzerland. The average thousand-contact price is now 70 francs.
No Thurgauer TagblattNo newspaper in Thurgau will carry the title Thurgauer Tagblatt for the next five to ten years. Thurgauer Medien AG and St. Galler Tagblatt AG have reached an out-of-court agreement on this.

The Takeover Panel of the London Stock Exchange will not allow the advertising holding company WPP to withdraw its bid for the Tempus Group.News Panel denies WPP withdrawal The authority considers the conditions for the withdrawal clause - substantial economic deterioration in the takeover target - not to have been met. WPP has lodged an appeal against this. Two days before the decision, WPP announced that it had new information on Tempus' financial situation that would strengthen its case.
The new: Zenith Optimedia Group The joint media holding company of Publicis and Cordiant is called Zenith Optimedia Group. The two companies are bringing their media networks Optimedia (previously solely owned by Publicis) and Zenith Media (half owned by Cordiant and half by Publicis subsidiary Saatchi & Saatchi) under this umbrella. Optimedia and Zenith will continue to operate independently of each other. Publicis owns 75 percent of the holding company.
Dentsu advertises from space For the TV commercial for a soft drink, the Japanese agency Dentsu chose a location that is not entirely free of vertigo: the International Space Station (ISS). The commercial was filmed in the station's Russian module by specially trained cosmonauts. The Russian ISS crew had already filmed commercials for Lego, Pizza Hut, Radio Shack and Popular Mechanics at the beginning of May.
The advertising agency Lowe Lintas is apparently dropping the second part of its name. In future, it will only operate worldwide under the name Lowe, reports Advertising Age, citing insiders. Lowe Lintas was formed at the beginning of 2000 from the merger of Lowe with Ammirati Puris Lintas. The renaming means the disappearance of a traditional name: Lintas (short for Lever International Advertising Service) was founded in 1929 as the in-house agency of the Lever Group.

Media Focus reports heavy losses in gross advertising expenditure for all mediaMedia Focus pleases few with its gross advertising expenditure figures for September. All media together show a decline of 9.1 percent compared to the same month last year. Gross advertising expenditure for Internet banners shrank by 73.9 percent compared to September 2000. After an already striking slump of minus 57.2 percent in August, the situation has become even more dramatic: Compared to the previous year, the loss here in the first nine months of 2001 already amounts to minus 26.4 percent.
Daily newspapers also suffered the biggest setbacks so far this year, losing 15.3 percent compared to the same month last year. Their cumulative deficit is currently minus 6.8 percent. 23.3 percent less advertising money flowed into radio advertising. This means that the downward trend for this medium, which has been ongoing since July, has intensified once again.
Television stations, on the other hand, delivered good results; the 10.4% increase in their advertising income is satisfactory. The remaining media lost between 2.0% (posters) and 12.5% (trade journals) compared to the same month last year.
After the first three quarters of 2001, the cumulative loss of 1.7 percent for all media compared to 2000 has so far been limited, but Media Focus fears that the lean period in Switzerland is only just beginning. Bruno Amstutz
Gross advertising expenditure by media

September 2000 / September 2001 in comparison
in 1000 Fr. 2000 in 1000 Fr. 2001 +/- %
Daily newspapers 177 109 150 034 - 15.3
Consumer magazines 68 346 63 684 - 6.8
Trade journals 27 643 24 198 - 12.5
TV 62 003 68 454 10.4
Radio 13 766 10 556 - 23.3
Cinema 3 196 3 047 - 4.7
Teletext 1 987 2 039 2.6
Poster 35 762 35 047 - 2.0
Internet banner 3 914 1 021 - 73.9
Total 393 726 358 080 - 9.1
Source: Media Focus

The Berlin Art Library presents a century of Swiss poster artThe Swiss Foreign Minister Joseph Deiss opens the exhibition "A century in world format - Swiss posters from 1900 to the present" at the Berlin Art Library on November 1. The exhibits come from the library's collection and are being presented to the public for the first time. "Since we bought the collection of the Swiss artist Bruno Margadant in 1988, we have wanted to set up a larger exhibition of Swiss posters," explains Anita Kühnel, curator of the exhibition. The focus is on the visual languages that were particularly influential for the Swiss poster and established its international reputation.
The exhibition will not only showcase creations in world format, as the title might suggest. In a technical sense, it is intended to refer to the world format used only in Switzerland, which was used in the period after the First World War until the end of the 1980s and was originally planned as the European standard format.
On the other hand, the world format stands for the level of Swiss poster creation. "While in many countries the poster language became trivialized after an initial heyday, in Switzerland the aspiration to bring the poster into public conversation as an art form was always present," comments Kühnel on the quality of Swiss exhibits. The APG played and continues to play an important role in this, she continues, describing it as an advocate for graphic designers, clients and the public.
The poster for the exhibition was created by Niklaus Troxler, who himself represents poster art in the exhibition alongside contemporaries such as Schraivogel and Staehelin. Works by Emil Cardinaux, Fritz Burger, Burkhard Mangold and Walter Koch date from the early days. Simone Keller

Objective: To publicize the Mobile Life division of Schweizerische Mobiliar.Schweizerische Mobiliar Advertising media: Banner, half skyscraper. Use: November/ December.
Client: Swiss Mobiliar Insurance Company, Bern. Agency: Publimedia Webadvertising AG, Zurich; responsibility: Tiziano Obrecht.