Television There are few topics that divide opinion as much as the future of television. However, one thing is clear: television will remain the central medium. Although television will redefine itself, this change is taking place at a manageable pace and TV remains the central medium. Since 2006, the strategy consultancy Zehnvier, together with Publisuisse, has been continuously analyzing the changes shaping the media landscape. The investigations began with the broad-based empirical study "TV - Medium of the Future". Since then, the analyses have been continued by systematically tracking market research studies and industry reports. News from Switzerland, the rest of Europe, Asia and the USA is recorded. No digital tsunamiThe market observations indicate that the much-predicted giant digital wave will not materialize. The change in media use is not coming over us radically. This is shown, for example, by the MindSet Study 2007. In this study, 1923 people were given a PDA for three days and asked about their media use every hour. The study's more than 77,000 snapshots allow detailed statements to be made about the early adopters as media consumers of the future and thus also valuable conclusions about how media will be used tomorrow. The MindSet study defines early adopters by their new media equipment. They have a cell phone, a private online broadband connection with a flat rate and a device that allows "new television" (digital TV receiver or DVD recorder with hard disk). Early adopters can be between 16 and 59 years old.
Early adopters use all media intensively, especially the Internet and mobile devices. The Internet offers them topicality, utility and information. Cell phones are used intensively, but primarily for making calls and texting. Traditional media such as TV and radio remain in play for early adopters. They are used in particular for social orientation, i.e. to find out what is important in society and to have a say. In fact, TV remains by far the most widely used medium among tomorrow's consumers. It offers entertainment, is relaxing and makes people feel good. Television will not be replaced by the Internet, because the function and context of use are too different, even though both are audiovisual media.
Despite these results, it cannot be overlooked that the TV sector is undergoing significant changes. David Brennan, Director of Research and Strategy at the British industry organization Thinkbox, puts it in a nutshell: "TV is not dying - it's having babies." However, the changes are taking place at a manageable pace, as the following examples show.
Mobile TV is strugglingMobile TV has already been hailed as the "next big thing" several times. But the breakthrough is still a long time coming. A look at Germany shows why. Although almost every new cell phone is now TV-capable, Germans still mainly use their cell phones for telephony, texting and photos. One of the reasons for this is the picture quality: mobile services are still unable to keep up with traditional end devices in everyday life. There is also a lack of real demand: Only 13 percent of Germans are interested in mobile television. The costs are also perceived as too high. This and other hurdles (such as technical fragmentation) mean that the development of mobile TV is likely to be hesitant. Three million users are expected in Germany in 2012 - earlier estimates still assumed nine to twelve million.
Mobile TV is also far from booming in Switzerland. Only 6.9% of the population own a TV-capable cell phone (2006: 4.2%), and usage remains a marginal phenomenon. Only 1.2% of the Swiss state that they use mobile TV (2006: 0.7%). It remains to be seen whether Swisscom's DVB-H license and Euro 2008 will help mobile TV achieve a breakthrough.
IPTV is not a mass marketThe situation is similar with IPTV, often hailed as the next generation of TV. Objective observation shows: Internet protocol-based TV reception on a PC or television is growing, but is still far from being a mass market. In Germany, for example, around 270,000 IPTV subscribers were expected at the end of 2007. With 35 million German TV households, this means a penetration rate of 0.8 percent. Management consultants Deloitte expect around 2.2 million IPTV users in 2010, with other studies coming up with similar forecasts. IPTV will therefore gain momentum, but in relation to the total number of German TV households, penetration will only be between five and seven percent.
Internet-based television does not yet have a broad user base in Switzerland either. Swisscom expected around 80,000 Bluewin TV subscribers at the end of 2007 - around 2.7 percent of Swiss TV households. The web TV provider Zattoo has around 500,000 registered users in Switzerland, but these do not generate more than around 400,000 channel changes per month.
Personal Video Recorder marginalFor the future, it is often assumed that media consumption will be largely individualized, i.e. that consumers will primarily watch TV time-shifted and on demand. However, studies and market observations show that people will continue to watch mainly live.
This is particularly evident in the example of the personal video recorder, which makes time-shifted media consumption possible. Although it has been available for some time now, its popularity is still lagging behind forecasts. In the UK, for example: Jupiter Research had assumed that around 28% of British households would own a PVR in 2007. However, the actual penetration rate in mid-2007 was only 12%. In Switzerland, too, PVRs are still not very widespread. According to the latest KommTech study, 6.1% of Swiss people own a PVR, and 9% of the younger target groups Live TV will not only remain influential because PVRs are slower to catch on than often predicted. The decisive factor is also how they affect TV behavior. Here, international studies show that PVR owners also continue to watch mainly live TV. Measurements by Nielsen, for example, show that American PVR owners watch 85% of primetime programs unchanged at the time of broadcast.
Evolution instead of revolutionMobile TV, IPTV and PVR will certainly change the TV market, but the transition to next-generation television will be an evolution, not a revolution. And: TV will remain the central anchor point in the media ensemble of the future.
Roland Kopf, Clemens Koob, Kerstin Schoegel
The study - how the results came aboutThe Publisuisse project
"TV - Medium of the Future" consists of a mix of Delphi study, focus group discussions, online survey, expert interviews and secondary research. In this way, the creators ensure that the opinions of all market participants are expressed in the following steps:
Expert view
by means of a Delphi study: which technical developments are foreseeable, how is their relevance assessed, what is realistic in what time horizon? group discussions
with TV consumers: Survey of media usage behavior and future needs, what would the future television look like in terms of quality, content, availability and interactivity? online survey
the advertising industry (clients, advertising and media agencies): Assessment of technical developments with regard to changes and handling in the context of own marketing and advertising activities. Deepening
the consumer and expert view through individual assessment from a scientific perspective (advertising psychology, trend research, etc.)
Desk research: Extensive secondary research with a review of existing studies, articles and reports.