Can I still hope?

Anyone who reads the news regularly is informed about pandemics, climate change, species loss, the potential impact of artificial intelligence, fake news, inflation and war. No wonder more than half of Europeans have a rather dark view of the future. Where has the good hope gone? Has the belief in a better future become naive in view of our reality, or is there something like a well-dosed, justified hope despite everything?

Credibility of pessimism

Although one might think that pessimism about the future is a rather recent trend as a result of the many unsettling news items, its appeal is by no means a new phenomenon. As early as the 1840s, John Stuart Mill wrote: "I have observed that it is not the man who hopes while others despair, but the man who despairs while others hope, who is admired by many as a wise man." So a person who warns others of a terrible misfortune tends to appear more credible than an optimist - regardless of how realistic the claim is. For example, if someone thinks that a certain share price will rise immensely in the next five years, they are more likely to be considered risk-blind and naïve. However, if someone warns me that the price of a share I own is going to fall, they immediately have my undivided attention.

"Pandemics, climate change, inflation and war: no wonder many people have a dark view of the future."

It would appear that our current reality gives us plenty of reason to be pessimistic. However, the popularity of pessimism is also due to the fundamentally higher credibility of pessimistic forecasts. This is particularly true where there is a great aversion to loss, i.e. where concerns about a disadvantage provide fertile ground for pessimistic ideas to flourish. Take the stock market, for example.

Looking into the crystal ball

When it comes to financial and economic matters, pessimists are often given a big stage. However, the stock market in particular shows that a pessimistic attitude does not always indicate greater realism. It is more like a self-fulfilling prophecy, especially as the fall or rise of the DAX or SMI is heavily dependent on the predictions of the human players. If they are pessimistic, prices will fall. If they are hopeful, shares rise. So looking at the stock market prices is almost like looking into a crystal ball - except that it does not simply predict the future, but indicates how we assess it.

The fact that the DAX, for example, has risen from 1,000 points to around 15,000 since the end of 1987 confirms that, despite all the circumstances, optimists are in the majority - on the other hand, this is also a result of economic growth. But there is certainly reason for hope! And instead of prematurely seeing the next stock market slump as the fulfillment of doom-mongering stock market prophecies, we should remember the words of the old optimist Mark Twain from time to time: "Stock slumps are like Christmas. They come back every year." The biggest daily gains are often achieved even during the deepest crisis, such as during the 2008 financial crisis or at the start of the Ukraine war in 2022.

The age of no future

Following the conceptual model of the philosopher G. W. F. Hegel, Francis Fukuyama spoke of the "end of history" in the early 1990s: Following the Cold War, democracy proved to be the world's most important political system and many states had established a promising, capitalist economic system. People were united by a shared belief in a future of freedom and prosperity. - Numerous surveys show that this enthusiasm has faded today: since the early 2000s, the model of democracy has not spread further around the world. As many studies reveal, social inequalities have grown, the gap between rich and poor has widened and the once bright vision of a free, prosperous life has turned out to be a bubble for some population groups. In contrast to countries such as China and Saudi Arabia, which regularly show optimism rates of 75 to 80 percent in surveys, only 22 percent of young Europeans believe in a better future. The difference is that where the governments of China or Saudi Arabia have turned positive visions into a political program - think of Xi Jingping's promise to make China "one of the greatest countries in the world" by 2049 - a void seems to have grown in many European countries. In view of this, the pessimism of disillusioned Europeans can be understood as an attempt to avoid being even more disappointed by the future in their disorientation in the world and history.

Hope and freedom

In fact, historical and economic developments are not the only reason for the growing pessimism: in the Edelman Trust Barometer study cited, pessimism in democracies is also explained by citizens' impression that they cannot really participate in political decisions. Accordingly, the idea of a negative future is not only related to the lack of a positive goal or the disasters that occur, but also to the belief in how much influence we can have on the future. Pessimism feeds on the idea of a future that will befall us fatefully and is beyond our scope of action.

"Pessimism can be an attempt not to be disappointed by what may come."

For this reason, pessimistic forecasts tend to narrow our scope for action. If we hear too much bad news at once, we fall into a kind of rigidity: there's no point anyway. - Optimism, on the other hand, can provide motivation for action, as it contains a moment of freedom, a "You can do it!" This belief in our own ability gives us a reason to make an effort and change the inadequate status quo. While a pessimistic attitude has a paralyzing effect, optimistic thinking empowers us to take action. - However, this enthusiasm comes with the risk of falling flat on our faces when good things are expected where danger actually lurks. The crucial question is therefore whether naïve hope can be differentiated from legitimate hope. Is there legitimate hope? Or in the words of Immanuel Kant: What can I hope for?

What can I hope for?

According to Kant, the question of the legitimacy of hope is one of the three core questions of human reason. It is fundamentally different from the question of who or what gives hope. - According to Kant, all hope is aimed at happiness. - The central question is rather whether I am allowed to hope for this. In other words, can I (justifiably) hope to become happy through my actions?

"If we want to turn the tide for the better, we must not just hope: We must hope."

In contrast to pessimism and naïve or false hope, the legitimacy of hope depends on whether it is realistic to achieve what is hoped for. This means that legitimization is linked to the limits of the scope for action. For Kant, this is not limited by political decisions or applicable law (in which case we would be talking about legality), but by the laws that are a priori necessary in the strict sense, i.e. based on human reason. In the practical sense, this includes moral laws. If there is to be a motive to act in accordance with moral laws instead of making ourselves comfortable in pessimistic rigidity, we must be able to assume that morally correct action also makes us happy. For only this hope gives us a reason to make an effort, even if reality seems bleak. Hoping for a good future is therefore justified or even necessary if it motivates a morally justified endeavor.

Seen in this light, good hope is more than a soul whistling in the dark forest: by enabling us to change the status quo, we know through it that many of the problems mentioned, which - like the fall in share prices - initially appear to be beyond our control, are products of human action and can therefore be changed by it. So if we don't want to let go of the possibility of turning the tide for the better, we must not just hope: We should hope.

Book tips: Hope, illuminated from several perspectives

"The consolation of beauty"

Author Gabriele von Arnim writes grandiosely and movingly about how we can find comfort (the twin of hope, so to speak) in the beauty that constantly surrounds us. We just have to decide to look.

"Hope"

Journalist Nermin Ismail gets to the bottom of one of the most basic human emotions, meets people who have almost lost hope, talks to them about their hardest times and what has helped them. A powerful, "real" work.

"Radical hope"

Jonathan Lear approaches hope from a philosophical direction - similar to the author of this text. His question: Does a world like ours allow us to hope in the face of cultural destruction?

"Do I still have hope or do I have to get some?"

An exceptionally clever, witty book about hope in difficult times - in Till Raether's typical, easily digestible (yet profound) style.