The boys run out of the movie theater
Mach Basic 2007-1 The Wemf shows the lowest cinema attendance figures in the last seven years. The proportion of young people has fallen significantly since 2004.
With around 16.85 million admissions compared to 15.2 million in the previous year, the cinema business in Switzerland recorded an increase of 9.2 percent in 2006. This was announced by the industry a few days ago. However, the latest Mach Basic study does not (yet) support this statement. Although its survey period only covers the first nine months of 2006 (plus the last three months of the previous year), there is not the slightest sign of a cinema upturn after the crisis year of 2005.
On the contrary, according to the Wemf survey, the number of moviegoers fell again by 2.5 percent, similar to previous years, but at 424,000 admissions per week, it is the lowest it has been since 2000. The declining interest is manifest in all parts of the country and all regions - with one exception: in Berne, the number of visitors remained stable.
It is true that the declines compared to Mach Basic 2006-2 or 2006-1 are within the confidence range - as has always been the case in recent years. But in a longer-term comparison, for example since Mach Basic 2003, which had a record weekly reach of 486,000 moviegoers, the industry has lost 62,000 viewers per week, which corresponds to a significant decline of 12.8 percent.
However, it makes more sense to use Mach Basic 2004 as a benchmark. The reason: Wemf reports cinemas by marketer - and because there were still two cinema marketers (Cinecom and Mediavision) with different sales regions until 2003, a direct comparison of today's figures with those prior to 2004 is sometimes difficult.
However, even since Mach Basic 2004, which is quite close to the average of recent years with a weekly cinema audience of 464,000, the number of cinema visits has fallen significantly (-8.6%). In terms of the regions, the figures remain within the confidence range, but in German-speaking Switzerland and especially in Lucerne they are close to being significant.
There is also no doubt about the sharp decline in interest in cinema among young people. Since 2004 alone, the cinema has lost a good quarter (28.7 percent) of its 14 to 24-year-old visitors. This means that 47,000 fewer people from this target group go to the movies every week throughout Switzerland. However, the decline is also significant in German-speaking Switzerland (minus 25.2 percent) and even more so in French-speaking Switzerland, where more than a third of this age group has turned its back on the so-called young medium.
Since 2004, the number of cinema visits by 14 to 34-year-olds has also fallen significantly. Across Switzerland as a whole, contact with this target group fell by 57,000 per week or 20.7%. In German-speaking Switzerland, the decline amounted to 19.9 percent, in French-speaking Switzerland 24.3 percent.
A further comparison is interesting: in 2004, a clear majority of cinema-goers were still aged between 14 and 34, and this applied to all parts of the country and regions identified at the time. Today, this is only the case in the Lucerne and St. Gallen/ Schaffhausen regions (61% each).
Huge difference between Procinema and Wemf The figures from Wemf and the industry association Procinema differ massively - and have done so for years. According to Procinema, Swiss cinemas recorded almost 17 million admissions in the 2006 calendar year, whereas according to Mach Basic 2007-1, the figure was almost 26 million between September 2005 and September 2006.
The big difference is not only due to the different survey periods, but above all to the survey methods. Wemf wants to know from the people surveyed whether they have "been to the cinema in the last seven days", while the Procinema figures are based on information from cinema owners about ticket sales - excluding free admissions and admissions with a cinema pass. However, according to Procinema Managing Director René Gerber, the latter account for a maximum of 1.5 percent.
The theory that cinema owners have a conflict of interest when declaring their figures is also hardly valid. It is true that higher attendance figures in cinemas increase the taxes paid to film distributors - but they also increase advertising revenue. In addition, the film distributors check the information provided by the cinema operators with their own spot checks. For Cinecom Managing Director Matthias Luchsinger, "the truth therefore lies somewhere in the middle". In principle, this is also how Cinecom handles the CAM (Cinema Admission Monitor) forecasting tool: Based on the weekly reported Procinema data for the last three years, the system calculates an empirical value per calendar week, which is weighted upwards or downwards using the Wemf data and enriched with socio-demographic information.
Markus Knöpfli
