Spiked: Que sera, sera

It's that time of year again: the shelves disappear under Christmas tree baubles, tinsel and all kinds of beautifully decorated knick-knacks. The shop windows are lit up in all colors and Bing Crosby's voice is blaring from the loudspeakers. But listen, there is an ominous roar mingling with the cheerful sounds: "Crisis under the Christmas tree." A consumer survey by Ernst & Young is already predicting big losses for the retail trade. Mr. and Mrs. Swiss intend to spend just 258 francs on presents this year. According to the consulting firm, that is exactly 43 francs or 14 percent less than last year. The Christmas business is only just warming up the engine and people are already predicting that there won't be enough gas to get to the finish line. The Swiss retail trade is not alone in this fate. Research institutes and experts are making election forecasts. Futurologists already know today what will be in tomorrow. Clairvoyant Ivan and his colleagues in the industry place numerous advertisements on the Annabelle pinboard. There's no question that business with the future is flourishing.

But what are the benefits of looking into the cards of fate? Let's travel back to our hairy beginnings. From an evolutionary point of view, it can certainly be seen as an advantage if we knew in advance where the sabre-toothed tiger was lurking. The fact that our species still (over)populates the planet today allows two assumptions to be made: A hairy Mike Shiva already helped our ancestors find the right path - for the price of three mammoth skins, of course. Or humans have multiplied faster than the population of their animal enemy. In view of the seven billionth citizen of the earth that we recently had to welcome into our midst, my money is on the latter. So the theory of evolution fails in relation to the predictions of the present. So what use is it to the sovereign to read two months before the National Council elections that the SVP is likely to emerge victorious? Or what use is it to the remaining 7,700,500 inhabitants of Switzerland to know that 500 others "only" want to fork out CHF 258 for their Christmas presents? Are we part of a huge conspiracy? It is well known what influence fortune tellers can have. What works on a small scale could also work on a large scale: If we voters are predicted that the SVP will win, then we say: "Pha, not with us", and vote Green Liberal and BDP. The latter have therefore paid a tidy sum to research institutes and experts - no wonder, they were less present in newspapers and on billboards than the SVP. Following this theory, it quickly becomes clear that the "Ernst & Young" forecast was also bought! And by the retail trade. "Pha", the Swiss consumer should say to himself, "I won't be influenced by the general mood of crisis and will invest anti-cyclically." Why else are such survey results and forecasts being dragged through all the media?

I don't really count myself among the conspiracy theorists. Nevertheless, I'm not worried about the current Christmas sales. Because what if the budget has already been used up, but this cute teddy is still missing from my daughter's collection? Or when I'm buying a scarf for my husband and this great hat of all things catches my eye? Exactly, you can't treat yourself to anything else. I can't wait to see the hard figures for Christmas sales. What will be, will be ...