Tom Goodwin: The Antiexcentric
As an expert on future technology, Tom Goodwin differs from many of his colleagues in two ways: He is modest - and he is usually right. An interview.

m&k: Tom Goodwin, I’ve spoken with a number of so-called futurists in the past—and quite a few of them were wrong in their predictions. You, on the other hand, were right about a great many of the things you predicted in your book *Digital Darwinism*, published in 2018. What sets you apart from the rest of your profession?
Tom Goodwin: First of all: That’s really nice of you, thank you very much. I think the main reason for your assessment—if it’s accurate—is that the colleagues you mentioned have a different focus. Many futurists base their success on making predictions that are as outlandish and eccentric as possible. If you go to a conference on the future of retail and tell the attendees that smart labeling, better staff training, or faster checkout software could solve most of the problems, people will probably be a little disappointed. They want to hear about drones and 3D-printing food at home (laughs). But I’d rather be helpful than extravagant. I read studies, I do research, I talk to all kinds of people, and then I try to approach each issue with empathy and pragmatism. Let’s be honest: The major changes in today’s society aren’t caused by quantum computers, but by kids who spend all their time on TikTok. Our daily lives are influenced less by 5G technology than by the labor shortage in the low-wage sector. There are urgent problems for the near and medium-term future that we need to address.
Despite your pragmatism, you’ve always been someone who has strongly advocated for «disruption from within» in the business world. For many years, you could even be counted among the ranks of the «Disrupt or Die» evangelists. Now, with the pandemic and war, we’re experiencing massive «disruption from the outside.» How has that affected your work?
Society likes to talk a lot about the threats associated with the developments you mentioned. But—without wanting to sound cynical—those very developments are part of the rhythm of life. So how do we respond to them? I think it’s absolutely crucial that we shift our perspective and focus much more on opportunities than on risks. We need to demonstrate now that we are resilient and efficient, and then—regardless of the situation we currently find ourselves in—we can work toward a better future.
I hope it doesn't sound completely immoral when I ask you next whether all the tragedies and challenges of our time are, in fact, a «wake-up call»?
It is undoubtedly … difficult to look at what’s happening and talk about it in a way that doesn’t seem insensitive. But the most important thing we can learn from current events, in my opinion, is «that we can do this.» Look at the scale of the external disruption we’ve experienced—and are still experiencing… and then consider the way we’ve learned to deal with it. Do you remember how the production of ventilators was ramped up at the start of the pandemic? How companies brought software from the beta testing phase to market readiness, making «remote work» possible in the first place? And we don’t even need to mention the development of the vaccine, based on a fundamentally new mRNA technology. When it really matters, we can work together, we can make quick decisions, and we can mobilize society. That’s the encouraging insight I take away from the crises of the present.
In the first edition of your 2018 bestseller *Digital Darwinism*, you talk about «disruption heroes» like Airbnb and Uber. Since then, these companies have become established, and firms like Zoom and TikTok have taken center stage on the global stage. «There is a time for everything,» says the Bible—but is there something that all these companies have in common?
There are actually several very important similarities. The first is that all the companies you mentioned were founded in response to very important, previously unmet human needs: Zoom is about connecting us in a modern, visually appealing way. The idea behind TikTok is that we feel like part of a «tribe,» part of a cultural movement. Uber is about making it easier and more efficient to get around, no matter where on the planet you are. Upon closer inspection, all of these companies are less technology-centric and more user-centric, even though they are, of course, powered by cutting-edge technology. Another thing they have in common is that they rely on intuitive, almost playful interfaces. And they have a clear focus: Zoom isn’t trying to become a telemedicine provider or a blogging platform, but instead stays true to its core competencies.
You advise companies on transforming their business models and processes, and you point out that there is often a lack of willingness to see change processes through to the end. Why is that—and does it sometimes frustrate you?
That used to frustrate me quite often, actually (laughs). But things got better once I began to understand the reasons behind it: In a way, large companies are like oil tankers. They’re incredibly good at what has become their core mission over the course of years or decades. And they’re terribly bad at doing anything else. Startups, on the other hand, are like speedboats: they look impressive, they’re fast, they can constantly change direction, but their «cargo capacity»—to stick with the metaphor—is smaller; they’re usually more flashy than they are profitable. And there’s no such thing as a perfect hybrid between an oil tanker and a speedboat yet. But since we’re on the subject of transformation: You’ve already mentioned that I used to be a staunch believer in the «Disrupt or Die» philosophy… But I’m not anymore. Today, I believe that disruption and change for their own sake can do more harm than good to a company.
So are there companies that shouldn't try to constantly change and improve?
That’s not what I’m trying to say. What I’m trying to convey is that we need both internal and external expectation management to determine in which areas we should optimize and in which we shouldn’t. Take a look at brands like McDonald’s, Nike, Adidas, or Lufthansa: No one expects these brands to completely overhaul their business models within a day or two. Shareholders are happy that these companies have positive cash flow and consistently generate returns. I believe that many people—and I explicitly include myself here—were convinced for years that «Netflix will destroy television, Amazon will destroy Walmart, Airbnb will destroy Marriott»—but that hasn’t happened. Rather, the «traditionalists» on this list have focused on the areas where they’re already performing very well and have improved the areas where they saw potential for improvement. Often by using the «newcomers»” technology for their own purposes.
Can you give me an example?
Airbnb offers a wide range of options for finding diverse accommodations. But the quality of the guest experience varies enormously. After all, Airbnb is not a traditional hotel business. A company like Marriott, on the other hand, has much more control over every single touchpoint: It can ensure minimum cleaning standards, define processes for complaint management… That’s why, once again: Companies need to assess when they should stay true to themselves and focus on their strengths, and when they should learn from disruptors. In short: For Marriott, the best way to compete with Airbnb isn’t necessarily to become like Airbnb—but to be as good a Marriott as possible.
In your books, you describe four different innovation strategies for large companies: «self-cannibalization,» in which a company begins to compete with its own traditional product line using new products; moments of innovation as part of regular business operations; limited «experiments» with new products or services; or investments in startups or hedge funds. How do companies decide which strategy is right for them?
The spectrum you mention has fluid boundaries. And the strategies you’ve mentioned aren’t mutually exclusive—you can apply several at the same time if you have the necessary resources. But one indicator of which strategy you might want to focus on could be the risks you’re willing to take. When you invest in startups or hedge funds, you stay out of their day-to-day operations as much as possible. And you say: «We don’t change anything ourselves; we simply make money off those who are better positioned for the future than we are» (laughs). «Self-cannibalization,» on the other hand, is the riskiest and most existential concept in business transformation: Revamping your entire product portfolio to compete with «a past version of yourself» is something entirely different from investing a few percent of your annual revenue in Apple stock. If you’re facing such a decision, think about how seriously your company is threatened. Are you more or less—pardon my language—screwed (laughs) if you keep doing things the way you have been? Then take the plunge. Are you doing reasonably well, but just need a little «push»? Then you can take a more conservative approach.
A few years ago, everyone was talking about the «Internet of Things.» Now the discussion has shifted to «the metaverse.» Do companies even understand what this term means to a sufficient degree—or do they need a higher level of «digital literacy» to do so?
What you’re implying there is a bit unfair (laughs). That sounds very, very skeptical of the capabilities of modern companies. I think the term «metaverse» has become a tool that different stakeholders use in whatever way they find most useful. So if you’re looking at a company working on blockchain-based solutions, it will view the metaverse through the lens of Web 3.0, interoperability, and decentralization. However, if you approach the matter as a game developer or a social network, you’ll see the metaverse primarily as a gateway to a three-dimensional, immersive, virtual world. These are two completely different ways of approaching one and the same phenomenon; and once you realize that, you’ll also understand why a common terminology seems so undifferentiated in this context.
How would Tom Goodwin describe «the Metaverse»?
Probably the simplest way to put this into concrete terms is as follows: Think of those moments in our lives where digitalization is already making things possible that we wouldn’t have thought possible just a few years ago. Extreme, «science fiction»-style predictions aren’t really my thing, so let’s just take a look around: We’re already living within practical applications of the metaverse—all the time! When you use Google Maps, you’re using a form of augmented reality. When you’re running late for a meeting with a friend and receive a text message that says, «Don’t worry, I went to the café next door. I brought a book with me, so there’s no rush»—that’s digital connectivity expanding our physical reality, and we don’t even think about it! In fact, this whole idea of «being connected»: If you’d asked a teenager ten or fifteen years ago how much time they spent online each day, they probably would have said «three to four hours.» Today, we’re online via our smartphones or other gadgets every moment we’re not asleep—so we no longer understand the concept behind the question at all.
The future begins with the tools we already have at our disposal.
We live in a world where we’ve all come to understand that the boundaries between physical and virtual reality have become blurred; a world where we retrieve mobile data from servers to make our lives easier «on the go.» Our phones are our outsourced memory, capturing all the moments that mean something to us. That’s how far we’ve come. And now? Where are we headed? Before us has been set up the largest, emptiest, most wonderful canvas that may ever have existed in the history of civilization. And now we’re about to start painting.
You’ve made it clear that the «Disrupt or Die» principle doesn’t always have to be taken to the extreme—and that companies can still survive, and even thrive. Still, some companies won’t survive these times of change, will they?
First of all, we should realize that the «death» of a company is not the same as the death of a human being. It is not always a sad thing when a company «dies.» Evolution is based on the idea that things pass away and what comes after them develops for the better. That is progress—growth and decline as inevitable parts of the economic cycle. In general, I’m a big fan of metaphors for growth rather than words like «change»: Why should we strive to «reprogram» people or companies to move from «only this» to «only that»? Shouldn’t we rather talk about how the fields we once cultivated might bear different fruits in the future? Death should not set the tone. The focus of our thinking should be on birth—on what we can create, what we can learn. On what will remain for future generations once we are no longer here.










Dr. Alexander Haldemann, CEO of Publicis Groupe Zurich: I recently had the opportunity to speak with advertising icon Sir John Hegarty over dinner in Zurich. It may seem questionable to label anyone an «icon» at all (since our industry has not only seen more than enough «golden calves» over the years, but has also witnessed the fading of their supposed luster). But if one were to use the term as a one-time exception, it would surely be for Sir John: With Barton Bogle Hegarty (now known as BBH Global), he created an agency that gave Audi the slogan «Vorsprung durch Technik,» made Levi’s jeans sexy again, and elevated Lego to the status of a favorite toy for several generations.So this creative genius of the century sat across from me at dinner and, between sips of his self-produced Languedoc red wine, uttered a seemingly simple sentence: «Creativity,» said Hegarty, «is authenticity.» His statement has stayed with me ever since, time and time again. Why? Because, in its simplicity, it points to a profound truth that sometimes seems to fade into the background in the day-to-day work of us professional communicators. «No one,» Sir John explained, «can be creative at a high level unless they are absolutely and unshakably convinced that they are acting out of total authenticity.»




