Hand over the tax?

The internet has changed the world over the last twenty years, and Google has been and continues to be a key part of this change. And Google is about to play a formative role in another megatrend over the next two decades: The search engine and advertising giant is ahead in the development of self-driving cars. If this revolutionizes local passenger and freight transport, it will have far-reaching social consequences. The vision is well and truly fifty years old: in the technology-enthusiastic 1960s, there was no shortage of ideas for allowing cars to transport their passengers from A to B without them having to do anything. Since then, car companies have been trying to put this idea into practice, which has worked reasonably well on closed test sites, with several vehicles independently forming a closely-knit convoy. The military also dreamed of robotic vehicles. Contrary to what some might think, Google did not become active in this area because marketing dreamed of gaining access to a captive audience for advertising messages - Google's DNA is not commercial, but in the use of computers. As project manager Chris Urmson explains in a YouTube video, Google realized in 2008 that self-driving cars were primarily a challenge for software development. And Googlers love solving problems that can significantly change the world. According to Urmson, 1.2 million people die in traffic accidents worldwide every year, with human error being the cause in more than 90 percent of cases. If the Googlers succeed in finding a technical solution that is always alert, never distracted and can see what is going on all around it, lives could be saved and the world made safer. (In Switzerland, 269 people died on the roads last year and 21,379 were injured in traffic accidents). So Google set itself two bold goals: to drive 100,000 miles on public roads automatically and to drive 1,000 miles in particularly interesting places. A year and a half later, these hurdles had been overcome, giving the company confidence that it was on the right track. While cars from other manufacturers were converted for these tests, Google announced prototypes for its own vehicles at the end of May, heralding a new development phase: There is no steering wheel or brake pedals in these little cars.

All research

There are good reasons not to dismiss the trend towards self-driving cars as the playground of computer-loving tinkerers. The entire automotive industry is developing and researching in this area - the driving assistants available today are precursors to this development. Volvo, for example, has stated that it is striving to be a leader in this field and is confident that this technology will be ready for series production from 2020. A Volvo V60 is currently driving autonomously through the city center of Gothenburg, albeit under the supervision of engineers - this test fleet is to be expanded to one hundred vehicles by 2017. And at Mercedes- Benz, a special S 500 autonomously drove the hundred-kilometre route from Mannheim to Pforzheim over land and through cities in August last year. It will be several years before self-driving cars appear regularly on the roads. Nevertheless, it is worth looking at this trend on the long-term radar today. It is quite possible that advertising will play a role in this, in that fares can be rewarded with attention for advertising messages, market research surveys and the like. The use of such vehicles in branding will probably become more significant. Weekly shopping? Simply use the app to order a Migros car to drive you to the nearest supermarket, point out current promotions and then drive you home with your shopping. It will even be possible to make an additional stop at a competitor - for an extra charge, of course. Many small service providers - from hairdressers to innkeepers - will entice their customers with offers for a free pick-up service. They will not need their own fleet, but will work with specialized service providers, the descendants of today's cab entrepreneurs. This way, the new hairstyle can arrive at its first appearance undamaged and the pissed-off pub guest can be chauffeured home safely. And both - so the hidden consideration - will return as loyal customers next time thanks to the good service.

Better mobility for all

If self-driving cars make life more pleasant for many in such cases, it will be possible for entire population groups (too young, too old, disabled) to enjoy the benefits of individual motor vehicle transportation at all. Children and young people can drive to school safely. Mothers can keep an eye on their toddlers during the journey and older people can drive to an evening of cards with friends in the neighboring village. Anyone who is dependent on a wheelchair can get to a job that would be inaccessible without this transportation option. Because work can be done during the journey - all teleworking functions are available - even longer commutes become acceptable. And so self-driving cars will not only change society, but also the landscape. People who live in the city will no longer need a car, and all the parking lots and parking garages can be repurposed. In the countryside, more remote areas will become attractive again, where the population has previously migrated to urban centers due to poor transport connections, among other things. Self-driving cars will not only transport people, but also goods - to remote villages as well as through the Alps. For example, convoys of trucks could travel autonomously at night on the north-south axis. This has implications for infrastructure planning. Such cars travel faster and at shorter distances on highways, which means more cars can travel on the same roads: There are no more traffic jams and additional lanes do not need to be built. And because there are no more collisions, such vehicles can be built more easily and require less energy.

Foreseeable opposition

But not everyone will be happy about such prospects. If the concept of owning a car becomes obsolete, many professions will become redundant. Starting with the car salesman, through the garage owner or coachbuilder, to the insurance agent and damage inspector. And if thought through to its logical conclusion, rail transport could also become obsolete. It is therefore clear that the relevant lobbies will do everything in their power to at least delay this development. This is because the technology in this area is far ahead of the legislation. And so it will not only be arguments about jobs that will be brought into play. Privacy concerns will also play a role, as will liability issues in the event of an accident: Is the manufacturer of the car or the software liable, the fleet owner or the passenger? And anyway, how safe are such computer cars when everyone knows that computers regularly crash? What if the software is infected by a virus? What rules should there be to control the behavior of a vehicle when a crash is unavoidable? If a fully loaded bus crosses into the oncoming lane on a bridge, will the oncoming car jump over the parapet because the algorithm has quickly calculated that this will minimize the number of casualties? Can optimized crash behaviour be sold as a premium upgrade? Or should we even fear that all self-driving cars will suddenly drive onto a container ship with their passengers and only let them off the ship on an island where they will be enslaved by computers? It is clear that self-driving cars offer great opportunities. To seize them for the benefit of all, we need to act early - now! - action must be taken early - now! This includes legislation like that in the American states of California and Nevada, where such vehicles are already permitted. Here too, politicians can pave the way for this development today, so that Switzerland becomes the European leader in the implementation of this technology. From universities to numerous high-tech companies, we have the best prerequisites for this. However, politicians will only advocate such a change if they can be sure that they will not be punished by their voters. And so it will (once again) be the media that will play a decisive role here, depending on how they portray this development.

Christoph J. Walther