Twilight of the oracle
Commentary: Trend research continues to boom, but major economic changes usually come through the back door.
Comment Trend research continues to boom, but significant changes in the economy usually come through the back door Reto Wüthrich has surprisingly announced his withdrawal from the trend business. In recent years, the enterprising futurologist from Bern has sent out around 200 trend letters. In his last Pepper mail, he announces in an unusually self-deprecating manner that there are simply no more trends: "We are in an era of the complete dissolution of fashion trends into countless small, barely comprehensible fashions." He had done his duty and now wanted to turn his attention to "tangible projects", such as the repositioning of the local station Radio Extra Bern. Finally, the capital city oracle urges his readers to let their gut feeling guide them in future: "Do something nice. And do something right." This capitulation is all the more remarkable given that the demand for future consulting appears to be unbroken: the well-attended 8th German Trend Day recently came to an end in Hamburg. And in order to meet the "growing corporate interest in futurology" at first hand, Matthias Horx has even started offering a telephone service. The direct consultation service, called "Future live", involves "real people" who are available to answer questions at any time.
The need for revelation and the desire to speculate about the world of tomorrow seems unbroken. The economic crisis
on the contrary. When managers and politicians don't know what to do, they ask experts for advice. In view of their constant misjudgements of economic and media developments, they should have had a serious credibility problem for a long time: If the world stubbornly refuses to accept the theory, then it could be because of the theory.
But self-criticism is not the strength of this industry, which constantly conjures up the future from the spirit of the present. Their predictions about stock market developments, crude oil prices, growth rates or political votes and elections may be mathematically well substantiated, but fundamentally they cannot be distinguished from reading coffee grounds or gazing into a crystal ball. Nor can the evolution of our world be predicted.
Even if the forecasters take into account all possible influencing factors, the development of the media - let alone our society - cannot be calculated. In all these modern oracles, blind men are asked by blind men about the way into the future. But far-reaching changes usually come through the back door, unpredictable and random. Otherwise, the implosion of the new economy would hardly have caught so many business leaders off guard.
Samuel Helbling, Editor-in-Chief
The need for revelation and the desire to speculate about the world of tomorrow seems unbroken. The economic crisis
on the contrary. When managers and politicians don't know what to do, they ask experts for advice. In view of their constant misjudgements of economic and media developments, they should have had a serious credibility problem for a long time: If the world stubbornly refuses to accept the theory, then it could be because of the theory.
But self-criticism is not the strength of this industry, which constantly conjures up the future from the spirit of the present. Their predictions about stock market developments, crude oil prices, growth rates or political votes and elections may be mathematically well substantiated, but fundamentally they cannot be distinguished from reading coffee grounds or gazing into a crystal ball. Nor can the evolution of our world be predicted.
Even if the forecasters take into account all possible influencing factors, the development of the media - let alone our society - cannot be calculated. In all these modern oracles, blind men are asked by blind men about the way into the future. But far-reaching changes usually come through the back door, unpredictable and random. Otherwise, the implosion of the new economy would hardly have caught so many business leaders off guard.
Samuel Helbling, Editor-in-Chief
