450 million: Black Friday sales continue to fall
Black Friday’s 10th anniversary is now behind us. Our estimates show that sales, at 450 million Swiss francs, were slightly lower than last year. We’re taking stock of the event and looking ahead to the coming year and to Cyber Monday on Monday.
Monday is Cyber Monday, the last of the big shopping events. The day offers shoppers another opportunity to find attractive discounts in online retail. Following the decline in sales on Black Friday, we also expect Cyber Monday to see a negative trend.
Black Friday: Sales fall for the second time in a row
According to our projections, yesterday's Black Friday generated sales of CHF 450 million in Swiss non-food retail within 24 hours. This is around CHF 10 million less than in the previous year. While brick-and-mortar retail recorded a noticeable decline, online sales stagnated. The two-year downward trend thus continues.
A key reason for the decline in sales is the now common practice of many retailers to extend their promotions over several days or even weeks instead of concentrating on the 24 hours of Black Friday. In addition, the ongoing economic uncertainty and the strong Swiss franc, which makes imports cheaper, have dampened sales.
Retail expert Julian Zrotz from blackfridaydeals.ch says: "The decline in sales in the 24 hours of Black Friday shows the ongoing structural change in the market. The previous massive sales peak is flattening out somewhat in favor of a broader distribution of purchases over the entire Black Friday week and the rest of November."
We predict that this trend will continue in the coming year and that almost all retailers will extend Black Friday to several days or even weeks. The classic 24 hours of Black Friday will therefore continue to lose relevance. Due to the ongoing pressure on margins and the significantly earlier and more strategic planning of promotions, we hardly expect discount campaigns that are unprofitable for retailers, as was often the case a few years ago. Instead, retailers will increasingly focus on expanding their loyalty programs and personalized offers for shopping events.
Monday is Cyber Monday: online retail sales fall to 75 million francs
Cyber Monday concludes the three big shopping days. Unlike Black Friday, the focus on this day is primarily on electronic items and online retail. However, the attractiveness of the offers is comparable. Numerous retailers extend their existing Black Friday discounts, while other providers add to their promotions or even launch completely new promotions.
We are forecasting a slight decline in sales in non-food online retail for Cyber Monday. This is expected to amount to CHF 75 million, which corresponds to a drop of around CHF 5 million compared to the previous year. The main reason for this development is the shift in sales away from individual shopping days to the surrounding days and weeks. This trend is exacerbated by the ongoing economic uncertainties. Sales of non-essential products, such as consumer electronics, are particularly affected by this decline.
The proximity of shopping days to Christmas has little impact. A representative DemoSCOPE survey conducted on behalf of blackfridaydeals.ch shows that just under half of Swiss people think that the shopping days are too close to Christmas and therefore commercialize the Advent season unnecessarily. A third, on the other hand, find this proximity practical. For many consumers, the campaign days offer the opportunity to buy gifts at particularly low prices. Retailers, in turn, make targeted use of the increased demand and focus on typical gift items.
