TV forecasts 2020 and outlook 2021

However, the extent of the impact varies depending on the language region and broadcaster. This, in turn, affects the quality of the forecast. The range here extends from «unacceptable» to «so-so» to «very encouraging.».

Will this trend continue?

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed a lot since last March and turned many things upside down, including the TV market. One consequence of the first lockdown a year ago was a rise in TV viewership—after it had been steadily declining in recent years. In the first few weeks, this was primarily due to high viewership of news programs, but afterward, more entertainment-oriented formats also benefited from the increased viewing. The big question was: Would this trend toward higher viewership continue in the second half of 2020, allowing TV networks to continue benefiting from higher viewership? The TV stations were apparently mostly optimistic when drawing up their advertising block forecasts for the second half of the year. However, as already noted in issue 11-12/2020, the stations’ assumptions were only partially fulfilled in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the trend was similar for the broadcasters under review. Detailed information on this can be requested from the SWA ([email protected]).

People in Western Switzerland watched for longer

The SRG stations marketed by Admeira, as well as the private stations of the TF1 Group, performed very well. Only SRFzwei fell significantly short of the forecast in October and November.
In French-speaking Switzerland, however, with the exception of C8, the channels marketed by Goldbach also performed relatively well to very well. Although M6 still showed some weaknesses in October, it was then able to significantly improve its forecast performance by December. The picture in German-speaking Switzerland, however, was quite different: With the exception of DMAX, none of the channels marketed by Goldbach that were analyzed achieved their planned performance targets in the fourth quarter. In some cases, they fell far short of them. Kabel1 stands out positively. The channel was able to improve its forecast accuracy month by month and reached its target in December with an index of 101 (i.e., the forecast and actual performance figures matched). The varying forecast accuracy also had an impact on advertisers’ TV campaigns. While the planned performance targets in French-speaking Switzerland were generally met at the desired time, advertisers in German-speaking Switzerland sometimes had to accept significant performance shortfalls. Looking at the trends in TV usage and viewing time, it quickly becomes clear why the stations in French-speaking Switzerland performed better: While viewing time in German-speaking Switzerland fluctuated around the previous year’s level between October and December, in French-speaking Switzerland it was between 7% and 16% higher than the previous year.

«Depending on the assessment of the forecast's quality, a correction factor is incorporated as early as the preliminary planning stage.»

The start of 2021 was no less sluggish for the channels marketed by Goldbach in German-speaking Switzerland. In January, only RTLzwei and Sat.1 met or slightly exceeded their forecast figures, and in February, RTLzwei and Kabel1 did the same. RTL, Pro7, as well as 3plus and TV24, on the other hand, fell significantly short of the forecast figures. The downward deviations from the forecasts for these channels amounted to as much as 38%. The forecast accuracy of the German-speaking Swiss SRG channels, as well as that of most French-speaking Swiss channels, was very encouraging in the first few months. Only C8 has so far fallen short of the forecast by about 15%.
The SWA is committed to ensuring high-quality forecasts and fair pricing trends, and is in discussions with all media agencies and the AGFS to this end. For more information on the SWA’s work, visit www.swa-asa.ch.