TV advertising Marketers consider last year's decline in TV advertising spending to be only a temporary slump. So far, TV marketers have had every reason to be satisfied with their customers' bookings: The share of TV advertising in total gross advertising expenditure in Switzerland rose steadily to 17.7 percent by 2001. Last year, however, the curve took a dip and the share fell back to 17%. However, the loss in the advertising market is attributable to German-speaking Switzerland, where TV spending fell by 9.5% last year. In French-speaking Switzerland and Ticino, on the other hand, they rose by 3% and as much as 12% respectively. Giordano Giordani, Head of Media Research at the marketer IP Multimedia, explains this as follows: "TV 3 and Tele 24 have cumulatively accounted for around 10 percent of the TV advertising volume in their short time, but the loss of this advertising money could not be fully absorbed by other channels because they were not fully equivalent to TV 3 and Tele 24. "The TV marketers Publisuisse, IP and Cinecom are therefore unanimous in their opinion that the market share of TV advertising will continue to increase. However, Cinecom media manager Michaela Krouzel expects market share gains of just 0.5 percent per year until around 2006. Publisuisse sales manager Martin Schneider expects an increase to 20 percent in three years, "and 22 percent could be possible in five years," he says. Giordani points to Austria, which has achieved a TV share of around 23% despite lower cable density and massive advertising restrictions at ORF. "In the long term, this is also a benchmark for Switzerland," he says. In the short term, however, growth will remain weak as the attractiveness of TV as a medium is limited by the RTVA. Giordani: "The full potential will only unfold with the liberalization of the RTVA from 2006."
No sprinkling mediumGerman conditions (TV market share 43%), on the other hand, are not expected, not even in the long term. "A figure approaching that of Germany can only be achieved through a more liberal TV policy (fewer restrictions, lower entry thresholds for new Swiss private channels) and higher TV usage," says Krouzel. However, the latter is only increasing in small steps - at least in German-speaking Switzerland. "Here, TV is simply not an accompanying medium. When people watch television in Switzerland, they do so purposefully and intensively and not primarily for entertainment," states Schneider.
Opinions are divided on the question of whether German program and advertising windows will increase their current 32% share of TV spending. Krouzel clearly sees windows as the winner. "In the next three to five years, we expect an approximate gross expenditure split in TV of 50:50 between the advertising windows and the SRG stations," she says. Her reasoning: In the 15/49 target group, SRG has a market share of 20 to 25 percent in German-speaking Switzerland, but accounts for 51 percent of advertising expenditure. The advertising windows, on the other hand, achieved an audience share of around 40 percent and 42 percent of advertising expenditure. Krouzel argues that the imbalance between SRG's performance and income would therefore develop in favor of advertising windows.
Giordani does not go that far. "There will certainly be no quantum leaps, but we still see a small shift in favor of advertising windows." One reason for this is the different customer structure: the main customers of advertising windows are providers of low-price products that are not dependent on economic cycles, while SRG customers offer high-price products that are more dependent on economic cycles.
Schneider's view is different. "The advertising windows have reached their ceiling. Their blocks are pumped full," he says. To generate more sales, they could only increase prices.
Will Print regain its lost market share when the economy recovers? "No," says Krouzel, "this is a shakeout in the market." Giordani also speaks of a "natural correction of print's previously excessive share of the overall market", but believes that job ads will return to print. For Schneider, too, print has not lost everything. However, he does not see the future of printed media as all too rosy. "Readership figures have plummeted everywhere. Sooner or later, this must lead to price corrections and therefore also to lower sales," he states.
Development of TV's share of the overall advertising marketTV advertising expenditure appears to have recovered in the first half of 2003. But be careful: the year should not be praised before its end. The first half of the year is usually better than the second. However, last year it was exactly the opposite.
According to the Prognos study "Advertising Market 2012 Switzerland" published last fall, net advertising sales in Switzerland will increase to CHF 5.3 billion by 2006 and to CHF 6.3 billion by 2012. For the TV sector (including sponsorship), Prognos predicts an increase to CHF 605 million in 2006 and CHF 757 million in 2012 (market share of around 11.5 percent). By contrast, newspapers will reduce their market share to 45.1 percent in 2006 and 43.8 percent in 2012 (mk).
Markus Knöpfli