"There are definitely bright spots"
No one is willing to speculate on when the recovery will begin at this time.
However, Ralph Büchi, publisher of the HandelsZeitung Group, does not believe in a major exodus from the shaken stock market. When will the economic upswing return?
Ralph Büchi: Nobody knows. And anyone who claims to know is a fraud. Uncertainty about the timing of the economic upswing is omnipresent. That's why there is so much volatility on the financial markets.
But the stock market has lost confidence in the long term. It is now assumed that many of the shaken investors will keep their hands off the stock market for the next five to ten years.
Büchi: That's humbug. All those sayings that private investors have said goodbye to the stock market and now want nothing more to do with shares for the next ten years are, as experience shows, not true. Even a bear market cannot permanently change human nature. As soon as things go up for a few weeks, the vast majority of people are back in. If investors see an opportunity to make money on the stock market again, they will seize it.
Where do you get this conviction from?
Büchi: The stock market offers the only realistic chance of recovering at least some of the lost investments. Savings accounts and the entire fixed-interest investment market do not offer this opportunity. The returns on the real estate market are not outstanding either, but the risks are just as high as on the stock market.
Does this mean that people will soon be dealing with the stock market as before?
Büchi: Not that. People will invest with more experience and be more risk-aware. They will be much more disciplined than before, for example with stop-loss orders. We all had to learn that even Swiss blue chips can fall not by five or ten percent, but by 50 or 70 percent - nobody expected that.
At the moment, however, all indicators are still pointing downwards. Do you see any positive signals?
Büchi: There are some bright spots, for example in the corporate financial statements. These will benefit from the base effect in the third and fourth quarters. Last year, these quarterly results were already in the basement. This year's results will therefore be measured against the poor results of 2001. As a result, the 2002 financial statements will automatically appear in a better light. This fact alone can contribute to a more positive mood.
What is your best-case scenario?
Büchi: If the economic recovery trends are confirmed, there will be a substantial upturn on the financial and advertising markets relatively quickly.
What happens when the economy dives into a second hole?
Büchi: Then things will get uncomfortable. If the negative trend doesn't end soon, we won't be able to avoid painful adjustments. But that applies to the entire economy, not just the media industry. Nevertheless, even in the worst-case scenario of a double dip, I still see no signs of a long-lasting depression. It would then be a question of perhaps an additional year before the belt would have to be tightened again. Interview: Daniel Schifferle
Ralph Büchi: Nobody knows. And anyone who claims to know is a fraud. Uncertainty about the timing of the economic upswing is omnipresent. That's why there is so much volatility on the financial markets.
But the stock market has lost confidence in the long term. It is now assumed that many of the shaken investors will keep their hands off the stock market for the next five to ten years.
Büchi: That's humbug. All those sayings that private investors have said goodbye to the stock market and now want nothing more to do with shares for the next ten years are, as experience shows, not true. Even a bear market cannot permanently change human nature. As soon as things go up for a few weeks, the vast majority of people are back in. If investors see an opportunity to make money on the stock market again, they will seize it.
Where do you get this conviction from?
Büchi: The stock market offers the only realistic chance of recovering at least some of the lost investments. Savings accounts and the entire fixed-interest investment market do not offer this opportunity. The returns on the real estate market are not outstanding either, but the risks are just as high as on the stock market.
Does this mean that people will soon be dealing with the stock market as before?
Büchi: Not that. People will invest with more experience and be more risk-aware. They will be much more disciplined than before, for example with stop-loss orders. We all had to learn that even Swiss blue chips can fall not by five or ten percent, but by 50 or 70 percent - nobody expected that.
At the moment, however, all indicators are still pointing downwards. Do you see any positive signals?
Büchi: There are some bright spots, for example in the corporate financial statements. These will benefit from the base effect in the third and fourth quarters. Last year, these quarterly results were already in the basement. This year's results will therefore be measured against the poor results of 2001. As a result, the 2002 financial statements will automatically appear in a better light. This fact alone can contribute to a more positive mood.
What is your best-case scenario?
Büchi: If the economic recovery trends are confirmed, there will be a substantial upturn on the financial and advertising markets relatively quickly.
What happens when the economy dives into a second hole?
Büchi: Then things will get uncomfortable. If the negative trend doesn't end soon, we won't be able to avoid painful adjustments. But that applies to the entire economy, not just the media industry. Nevertheless, even in the worst-case scenario of a double dip, I still see no signs of a long-lasting depression. It would then be a question of perhaps an additional year before the belt would have to be tightened again. Interview: Daniel Schifferle
