The coincidence excuse - How AI is removing coincidence from marketing

Too often, coincidence serves as an explanation when we don't understand exactly what actually influences decisions. «Two SME CFOs download the white paper „Costs down, output up“ on the 28th - both while on the road.»; «Three urban cyclists buy the same rain jacket - one hour after the bad weather report.»; «A creative team likes the same coffee machine ad - the day before the pitch deadline. Coincidence?» This explanation is coming under increasing pressure. A new AI model shows that many behaviors that have long been considered spontaneous follow statistically recognizable patterns. It analyzes context, movement data, environmental factors and consumption signals in real time. Or to put it more simply: it measures when people are receptive. While traditional targeting asked who someone is, this model analyzes when someone is ready.

Initial modeling shows surprisingly clear correlations:

The probability of interaction with mobility offers increases when people move more slowly than usual - for example when waiting or changing trains. Offers for convenience products perform better than average when the temperature, time of day and length of stay at a location exceed a certain threshold. Coincidence? Or simply patterns that we have not yet measured?

Swiss Post Advertising played a key role in the development of this model. Together with the BrinkertLück agency, it was tested in selected urban areas. Advertising media with yellow umbrellas were placed in a targeted manner based on predicted receptiveness. Within a few hours, the number of yellow umbrellas in the cityscape increased. No coincidence.

«When we understand when people are receptive, impact becomes predictable,» says Raphael Bratschi, Head of Business and Product Development at Swiss Post Advertising. «Chance loses its function. It becomes unemployed.» Whether it will actually disappear remains controversial. But the fact that it is increasingly under observation is not.