NZZ SME Barometer 2026: Pessimism at a Record High
Swiss SMEs are more pessimistic about the future than at any time since records began. The 2026 NZZ SME Barometer shows that geopolitics, U.S. trade policy, and bureaucracy are weighing on sentiment—and for many, strategic adaptability remains an area in need of improvement.
Sentiment among Swiss SMEs deteriorated in 2026 more sharply than ever before since records began. This is shown by the NZZ SME Barometer 2026, which the NZZ conducts annually in collaboration with Kalaidos University of Applied Sciences in the run-up to the Swiss Economic Forum (SEF). In April 2026, 495 individuals in leadership positions at Swiss SMEs participated in the sixth edition of the study.
Overall Index Hits New Low
The overall index of the NZZ SME Barometer 2026 has plummeted to a new low of −7.3 index points. The aspects surveyed are rated almost across the board worse than in the previous year, 2025. Companies are particularly negative about doing business abroad—which is considered more difficult mainly due to trade policy upheavals in the U.S.—as well as the currency situation and the reliability of supply chains, which are weighed down by geopolitical uncertainties. Added to this are legal regulations, regarding which respondents anticipate further bureaucratic burdens.
However, the integration of modern technologies remains a positive outlier: In this area, a large majority of companies report an improvement compared to the previous year.
Strong operationally, but vulnerable strategically
Building on this year’s SEF theme, «Unbreakable?,» the 2026 NZZ SME Barometer also examined the resilience of the surveyed companies. The picture is mixed: More than half—55 percent—rate themselves as somewhat to very resilient, while one in ten companies considers itself somewhat less or not very resilient, and the rest rate their resilience as moderate.
In operational terms, a majority considers itself capable of taking action and resilient to crises. At the strategic level, however, resilience reaches clear limits: An unexpected decline in revenue would be nearly impossible to manage—or even threaten the very existence—of just under one-fifth of those surveyed. Fewer than one-third believe they are capable of fundamentally adapting their business model within six months. Diversifying their supplier and customer base also remains an unresolved challenge for the majority.
AI and Digitalization as Factors in Resilience
In addition to a strong willingness to learn from crises, the majority of respondents cite a proactive approach to artificial intelligence and digitalization as factors that promote resilience. An overwhelming majority of companies are experimenting with AI or are already making targeted investments in related technologies.
Peter A. Fischer, chief economist at the NZZ, interprets the results as follows: «Until now, Swiss SMEs have assessed their situation as remarkably positive year after year, despite all the difficulties. This traditional confidence has shifted in a worrying way in light of the challenging global environment and the simultaneous deterioration of conditions in Switzerland.» He continues: «While companies have mastered the operational aspects of crisis management perfectly, However, many currently see limited opportunities to adapt their business models quickly and comprehensively to the volatile environment. The real test of the present, however, lies precisely in this strategic flexibility.»
The full report on the results, including additional charts and detailed analyses, is available on the NZZ website: https://unternehmen.nzz.ch
