Ten theses on the future of online marketing

ONLINE MARKETING How will advertising evolve and does the digital transformation also mean the end of advertising? Ralf Scharnhorst* from Scharnhorst Media lists ten theses on what online marketing could look like in the future.1. users simply switch off the advertisingOn desktop PCs, advertising eats up up to 60 percent of processor performance. In the past, it was enough not to have Flash installed. The switch to HTML5 is driving users to install ad blockers. Virus protection is another argument. In large companies, the sys admin installs adblockers as standard - even in some publishing houses that live from advertising. The data load is also a thorn in the side of mobile network operators, for which they could cash in on advertising companies in the future.2. does Google disable cookies?Third-party cookies are only used for advertising and are the anti-symbol of data protection for users. They could be switched off by default with the next browser update. As soon as the browser manufacturers have an interest in doing so - and this is coming up: Google has a 26 percent market share with the Chrome browser. It would help them to tie advertising budgets to the platform because it would harm other market players. Apple, number three among browsers with Safari, has discontinued its marketing activities and is positioning itself more on the side of the user and their data protection. As a result, 3rd party cookies are already largely deactivated in Safari. And who is number one in the browser market? - Mozilla Firefox with 29 percent, which only accounts for around 12 percent internationally. Firefox is mainly financed by Google and could be a test case for Chrome, even if cookies survive - they have never been as worthless as in times when users use three end devices.3. the oversupply of advertising space is decreasingPublishers called it the birth defect of the Internet: free content instead of paying at the kiosk and no limits on the amount of advertising as in TV and radio. As a result, the supply was usually greater than the demand for advertising space. Prices fell, and auction-based purchasing in programmatic advertising made it obvious that two trends could reduce the supply of advertising space in the coming years: firstly, ad blockers. Secondly, micropayments for editorial content are emerging - Blendle or Flattr could become the Spotify for journalism. Both trigger a new negotiation process with the user: How much advertising do they want to see and do they want no more advertising once they have paid? YouTube is also testing ad-free premium. Online advertisers must be prepared for headwinds.4. everyone invests in adtechSAP, Oracle, Adobe and IBM are pushing into the online advertising market. What does this tell us? These companies have recognized that one of the biggest economic inefficiencies lies in advertising. This won't change - it's all about creativity and vanity - but the industry needs to get ready for more serious competition.5. the customer journey is not onlineA purchase decision is never 100% influenced by what we measure in the customer journey analysis. Sometimes it is offline advertising, sometimes recommendations from friends, test reports or price changes. This is no reason to abandon the customer journey models. On the contrary: if we think we can measure, predict and influence all the variables in it, we urgently need to add new ones.6. social is commerceFacebook will not delete hate comments because users protest against them. It will only do so when advertisers start to restrict budgets as a result - which will begin in 2016.7 Mobile marketing: Back to the nicheThe statistics of the Online Marketing Group like to keep mobile as a marginal phenomenon. Mobile's share of online advertising expenditure was recently estimated at 12%. In reality, many users and brands no longer differentiate between PC, tablet and smartphone use. It is everyday life and just another variable in the control of the online campaign on which screen they appear. In contrast, a niche is opening up for pure mobile: location-based campaigns and app marketing are the only niches in which mobile is and remains special.8. the smartphone can do everything better than the PCThe smartphone has more sensors than the PC and can therefore understand us better. The small display is its last flaw compared to the PC. If you put this small display into VR glasses, you suddenly have an unrestricted 360-degree field of vision - see Samsung Gear or Google Cardboard from five euros. It's not just about virtual worlds for games. 360-degree photos and videos on Facebook and YouTube, in which you can determine your own perspective by moving your head, are the most popular application.9. the elephants in the second row of the china storeThe prophets are trumpeting the "GAFA age": Google, Amazon, Facebook and Apple are taking over the world. So far, so foreseeable. So it's high time to take a look at the second tier, from which defiant reactions from the neglected can be expected: eBay has more users than Amazon. Microsoft is further ahead than Apple in 3D with Kinect and in research into new human-machine interfaces. And then there's Alibaba.10. marketing must become more authenticThe younger the target group, the better its bullshit filter. Marketing does not work if it is perceived as a foreign body. It must therefore adapt to the platforms on which users are active. Native and content marketing were only the first steps in which brands try to imitate editorial offices. The future will translate brand values into content - this could be branded video entertainment, information content or simply the right answer to user questions on social media channels.