Big data analyses show that Trump will probably win the election
Election campaigns are no longer limited to posters and speeches. Instead, the race is shifting to the digital realm. This is likely to work in Donald Trump’s favor: Based on internet analyses, Swiss researchers predict he will win in November 2020—contrary to all poll results.
Donald Trump is stealing the show from his likeness Joe Biden on the internet. US citizens searched for the name of the incumbent president on the internet five times more often than that of the Democratic presidential candidate.
This was the finding of researchers led by Christoph Glauser from the IFAA Institute in Bern and Jacques Savoy from the University of Neuchâtel. They analyzed search queries on a total of 200 search and social media channels in the USA since the beginning of this year. They presented the preliminary results to the media on Thursday.
The avid Twitterer: Visibility-Trump
The researchers used computer-aided methods to analyze the tweets of the two candidates. The incumbent president posted an average of 37 tweets per day, while Biden only posted 14. "Visibility is crucial, especially in personal elections," said political scientist Glauser in an interview with the news portal Keystone-SDA.
While Trump focused on emotions such as fear and anger in his messages, Biden insisted on moral values. He also criticized Trump's approach to the Covid-19 pandemic.
No profit from Sander's departure
It is true that Trump's poll ratings plummeted during the pandemic. However, Biden never came close to his opponent on the internet during this time either. Nor in the first two weeks of August, when his campaign experienced an upswing thanks to the announcement of vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris.
Unlike Hillary Clinton four years ago, he also failed to win over Bernie Sanders' supporters to his side after he dropped out of the election campaign. "The Democrats really slept through that," said Glauser. That's no way to win an election campaign. Biden's search volume did not even come close to that of Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Bad websites
The researchers also analyzed the campaign websites - and gave the candidates a poor grade: "Neither website is really cool or technologically advanced," said Glauser. However: Trump hits the nerve of his voters on the website six percent better than Democrat Biden.
Comprehensive mood picture
Does Christoph Glauser trust his own analyses? "Certainly more than any survey," he says. "Our evaluations give a more comprehensive overall picture of the mood among the population."
He cites the Black Lives Matter movement as an example. Although a powerful wave of protest erupted on the streets after the death of George Floyd, the movement hardly gained any momentum on the internet - and Biden did not benefit.
President Trump already predicted in 2016
During the 2016 election campaign, all forecasts and digital channels were already betting on a Hillary Clinton victory. Even then, however, analyses by the research team showed that Trump would probably emerge from the election as president.
The team will now continue its internet analyses beyond the presidential elections. But: "I would be sorely mistaken if the Democratic presidential candidate could make up the ground by November," concluded Glauser. (SDA/swi)
