German advertising market: growth - and still concern

In its year-end forecast for the current year 2024, the ZAW expects the advertising industry to grow to a total of EUR 50.21 billion (+2.90%). Investments in advertising will increase to around EUR 38.36 billion (+3.73%), while the media's net advertising revenue will rise to EUR 27.03 billion (+4.48%). For other forms of commercial communication, the association is forecasting slight growth of +0.3% or EUR 11.85 billion in 2024. However, the ZAW forecast assumes that advertising investments will not collapse in November and December. Due to the high weighting of these months, noticeably lower growth is otherwise to be expected. ZAW will publish the final data together with the first annual forecast for 2025 next spring.

Supersport year, inflation

The ZAW's assessment from spring 2024, according to which further increases in all three core measurement points are possible this year compared to 2023, has been realized. There are a number of specific reasons for this: After the German advertising economy had fallen significantly in comparison to other advertising markets over the past two years, advertisers invested more heavily in their brands this year and apparently found convincing reasons and causes to do so despite cost pressure, a weak overall economy and veritable uncertainties. 2024 was a super sports year, inflation has fallen. The weak consumer sentiment was countered with an increased commitment to market communication and the resulting added value, particularly in the first three quarters.

Digital driver

The disproportionately high growth of digital advertising also remains a key driver of the comparatively positive development of the advertising market in the context of the overall economic situation. The picture for the other main categories (print, TV/moving images, direct mail, out-of-home advertising, radio and cinema) is mixed: moderate losses, black zeros and selective growth - with out-of-home advertising standing out positively. The trend that a few platforms within the digital advertising media are growing at an above-average rate and that investments from other sectors are flowing into this sector also remains unchanged.

With regard to the other forms of commercial communication, positive (sponsoring) and negative forecasts (catalogs | printed advertising, promotional items) in the individual disciplines almost balance each other out overall, which means that only a slight increase is to be expected here on balance.

Mood at its lowest point

The ZAW trend barometer conducted in November 2024 shows that the mood in the advertising industry has reached a low point. A large majority of ZAW member associations (86%) consider the political situation in particular to be threatening. With an overall score of just 2.3 points (3.1 points in the spring), the mood has never been worse in the past ten years (see chart).

ZAW members were also asked which factors had the greatest negative impact on the economic situation in 2024. Almost 90% of respondents stated that bureaucracy in Germany was an extreme burden, followed by the poor consumer climate (86%), high energy and raw material costs (72%) and the uncertain economic outlook in the country (71%). The shortage of skilled workers is also perceived as an even greater problem than in the spring survey. In spring 2024, 48% of respondents still classified the issue as a major problem; in November, this figure had risen to 62%. Insolvencies are feared by a total of 57% of respondents in 2025 - another slight increase compared to spring (55%). Looking ahead to the first half of 2025, around 60% of the members surveyed expect economic development to remain the same. Just over 20% expect a deterioration in the first half of the year and less than 20% expect an improvement. Compared to the previous trend surveys, the optimist camp has decreased.