To the point: no one knows where it's going
The U.S. mortgage bubble turned into a banking crisis, which in turn evolved into a financial crisis. The financial crisis now threatens to become an economic crisis, and that is why the media industry is already preparing for a potential media crisis.
The U.S. mortgage bubble turned into a banking crisis, which mutated into a financial crisis. The financial crisis is now threatening to turn into an economic crisis, which is why the media industry is already preparing for a possible media crisis. It's not just a question of the lack of or declining advertising revenues from the financial sector, which after all ranks third among the advertising industries in Switzerland. As of September, advertising pressure from bankers fell by around nine percent, according to Media Focus, and the trend is upwards. There is more at stake.
The economic upswing has slowed, and the signs that we will come within a hair's breadth of a recession are triggering fears. Although positive consumer sentiment has not yet turned negative, the more bad news from the economy, the stock markets, and the media that rain down on consumers, the more likely such a reversal of consumer sentiment becomes. Some advertisers will cut back on their advertising because of the uncertain future outlook. Many may do so already this year, others perhaps not until next year.
About a month ago, I was still reasonably positive about the development of advertising spending in 2009. Today, I no longer dare make a forecast. All too much has happened in politics and business in the last few weeks. In the USA, in Europe and in Switzerland. Thanks to globalization. The leftists are already heralding the end of capitalism, the neoliberals are licking their wounds and trying to hide, states are letting ailing financial institutions go bankrupt and supporting others with many billions. Politicians are calling for more state controls, for more influence.
No one knows where things are headed. The media industry - and not only in Switzerland - is getting restless. People fear the worst. According to an SDA report, the market value of U.S. media companies has recently plummeted, in some cases dramatically - by around 60 percent year-on-year, according to investment bank Goldman Sachs. The Essen-based WAZ Group is facing drastic cost-cutting measures. Savings of around 30 million euros are at stake. Ringier wants or needs to save. There is talk of an unconfirmed 50 million. Edipresse has already saved: 20 million for the next two years. Further savings measures will follow. We can only guess who will be next. Is it the NZZ or even the almighty Tamedia with its flagship Tages-Anzeiger? In any case, the outlook is bleak.
Bleak prospects also for all those who will not receive the long-awaited broadcasting licenses for local radio and television stations this Friday. The outlook is brighter, however, for the winners of the coveted licenses. Some of them will at least receive money from the state.
The economic upswing has slowed, and the signs that we will come within a hair's breadth of a recession are triggering fears. Although positive consumer sentiment has not yet turned negative, the more bad news from the economy, the stock markets, and the media that rain down on consumers, the more likely such a reversal of consumer sentiment becomes. Some advertisers will cut back on their advertising because of the uncertain future outlook. Many may do so already this year, others perhaps not until next year.
About a month ago, I was still reasonably positive about the development of advertising spending in 2009. Today, I no longer dare make a forecast. All too much has happened in politics and business in the last few weeks. In the USA, in Europe and in Switzerland. Thanks to globalization. The leftists are already heralding the end of capitalism, the neoliberals are licking their wounds and trying to hide, states are letting ailing financial institutions go bankrupt and supporting others with many billions. Politicians are calling for more state controls, for more influence.
No one knows where things are headed. The media industry - and not only in Switzerland - is getting restless. People fear the worst. According to an SDA report, the market value of U.S. media companies has recently plummeted, in some cases dramatically - by around 60 percent year-on-year, according to investment bank Goldman Sachs. The Essen-based WAZ Group is facing drastic cost-cutting measures. Savings of around 30 million euros are at stake. Ringier wants or needs to save. There is talk of an unconfirmed 50 million. Edipresse has already saved: 20 million for the next two years. Further savings measures will follow. We can only guess who will be next. Is it the NZZ or even the almighty Tamedia with its flagship Tages-Anzeiger? In any case, the outlook is bleak.
Bleak prospects also for all those who will not receive the long-awaited broadcasting licenses for local radio and television stations this Friday. The outlook is brighter, however, for the winners of the coveted licenses. Some of them will at least receive money from the state.
Pierre C. Meier, Editor-in-Chief
[email protected]
