One click into the future
Mediarena: The future lies on the Internet. Opinions differ on what that future will look like. It’s going to be tough for publishers.
Mediarena The future lies on the Internet. Opinions differ as to what it will look like. It will be difficult for publishers. How long will we still be holding paper newspapers in our hands? This existential question was not on the agenda at this year's Mediarena, an event organized by the Goldbach Media Group. Nevertheless, after the event, the invited publishers are likely to have questioned this uncertainty. After all, if you internalize the words of the Goldbach speakers, the future clearly belongs to the Internet. The web will continue its triumphal march. How quickly and in what direction was a matter of differing opinions. For the publishers, however, the messages sounded pessimistic in any case.one person who did not predict a rosy future for the print media in his presentation was media researcher Horst Stipp. He is a German who studies trends for the US media group NBC Universal. In elaborate studies, he investigates the question of how and what media Americans consume.
Right at the beginning of his presentation, Stipp made it clear that the discussions about the current development of the media were exaggerated. Many forecasts in the past proved to be wrong (see box). Horst Stipp: "The technologies may be able to meet the needs of users. Nevertheless, I wouldn't place any bets."
People are lazy about technologyIn a media usage study for NBC, the researcher was able to prove that even modern Americans are overwhelmed by the media. It is true that all generations are enthusiastic about technology. However, both young and old have lost track. Contrary to the euphoric media coverage, the spread of HDTV, DVR and other new technologies is only being experienced by early adopters. Headlines such as "Television was yesterday" or "The Internet Is About To Kill TV" are evidence of the uncertainty surrounding new technologies. The often predicted media revolution had not materialized. According to Stipp, people only change their habits slowly.
The hype surrounding the new web is also too much for the renowned NBC researcher. Using countless graphics, Stipp illustrated that although the web has developed into a mass medium, it is growing more slowly than believed. For example, a third of the baby boom generation still has no Internet access. According to Stipp, even broadband access is less widespread among the younger generation than assumed.
Although the media researcher explained the trends from a critical perspective and put some of them into perspective using statistics, Stipp is rather skeptical about the future of print. The generation of 15 to 27-year-olds in particular is increasingly relying on multimedia and mobility. The rule applies: technologies and media that you grow up with have an influence on your whole life. "There won't be a sudden and radical change in media usage behavior," Stipp is convinced. Nevertheless, Internet use will continue to increase at the expense of print time budgets.
And traditional TV? Everyone will continue to use it. Commercials, Goldbach CEO Klaus Kappeler must have been pleased to hear, remain the leading advertising medium. This is also because eye tracking studies (where eye movements are recorded) have shown that users of digital video recorders actively follow advertising very closely, even in fast-forward mode.
Schloter's explosive speech Swisscom CEO Carsten Schloter caused a stir among publishers and advertisers. In his speech, he was one of the few who dared to name specific consequences of current media developments, albeit very diplomatically. The Swisscom CEO did not predict a good future for traditional media: "Pull media will clearly prevail over push media." Schloter is convinced that traditional media will experience a significant decline in advertising budgets. For the CEO, companies with a business model like that of search engine giant Google are among the big winners. Customers' defensive reactions to advertising are becoming ever stronger, as rapid technological progress is creating more space and creativity.
However, Schloter also sees a dilemma in pull media. The number of advertising options is increasing, which means that advertisers are trying to differentiate themselves by addressing individual customers. This will make advertising more disruptive and intrusive in the future. This is a decisive success factor for advertising-financed business models.
Swisscom wants to offer contentBecause Swisscom is in an eroding market, the Group wants to earn more money with content. Schloter makes no secret of his intention to acquire the rights to exclusive content. The company wants to keep a close eye on the advertising market and its needs and participate where the number of interactive channels and platforms is growing in importance. Schloter left open what exactly this ultimately means.
Christian Lüscher
On the wrong track
Many predictions about new media technologies turned out to be wrong:
1985
the invention of the video recorder was expected to cause great damage to commercial television. 1995
Negroponte (MIT) sees the Internet as the most used medium for the year 2000. 1998
it was believed that DVD player sales would be sluggish. The initial forecasts for sales of TiVo boxes (1999) were several times higher than actual sales.
The assumption of Businessweek "Blogs Will Change Your Business" (2005) also proved to be largely wrong.
Right at the beginning of his presentation, Stipp made it clear that the discussions about the current development of the media were exaggerated. Many forecasts in the past proved to be wrong (see box). Horst Stipp: "The technologies may be able to meet the needs of users. Nevertheless, I wouldn't place any bets."
People are lazy about technologyIn a media usage study for NBC, the researcher was able to prove that even modern Americans are overwhelmed by the media. It is true that all generations are enthusiastic about technology. However, both young and old have lost track. Contrary to the euphoric media coverage, the spread of HDTV, DVR and other new technologies is only being experienced by early adopters. Headlines such as "Television was yesterday" or "The Internet Is About To Kill TV" are evidence of the uncertainty surrounding new technologies. The often predicted media revolution had not materialized. According to Stipp, people only change their habits slowly.
The hype surrounding the new web is also too much for the renowned NBC researcher. Using countless graphics, Stipp illustrated that although the web has developed into a mass medium, it is growing more slowly than believed. For example, a third of the baby boom generation still has no Internet access. According to Stipp, even broadband access is less widespread among the younger generation than assumed.
Although the media researcher explained the trends from a critical perspective and put some of them into perspective using statistics, Stipp is rather skeptical about the future of print. The generation of 15 to 27-year-olds in particular is increasingly relying on multimedia and mobility. The rule applies: technologies and media that you grow up with have an influence on your whole life. "There won't be a sudden and radical change in media usage behavior," Stipp is convinced. Nevertheless, Internet use will continue to increase at the expense of print time budgets.
And traditional TV? Everyone will continue to use it. Commercials, Goldbach CEO Klaus Kappeler must have been pleased to hear, remain the leading advertising medium. This is also because eye tracking studies (where eye movements are recorded) have shown that users of digital video recorders actively follow advertising very closely, even in fast-forward mode.
Schloter's explosive speech Swisscom CEO Carsten Schloter caused a stir among publishers and advertisers. In his speech, he was one of the few who dared to name specific consequences of current media developments, albeit very diplomatically. The Swisscom CEO did not predict a good future for traditional media: "Pull media will clearly prevail over push media." Schloter is convinced that traditional media will experience a significant decline in advertising budgets. For the CEO, companies with a business model like that of search engine giant Google are among the big winners. Customers' defensive reactions to advertising are becoming ever stronger, as rapid technological progress is creating more space and creativity.
However, Schloter also sees a dilemma in pull media. The number of advertising options is increasing, which means that advertisers are trying to differentiate themselves by addressing individual customers. This will make advertising more disruptive and intrusive in the future. This is a decisive success factor for advertising-financed business models.
Swisscom wants to offer contentBecause Swisscom is in an eroding market, the Group wants to earn more money with content. Schloter makes no secret of his intention to acquire the rights to exclusive content. The company wants to keep a close eye on the advertising market and its needs and participate where the number of interactive channels and platforms is growing in importance. Schloter left open what exactly this ultimately means.
Christian Lüscher
On the wrong track
Many predictions about new media technologies turned out to be wrong:
1985
the invention of the video recorder was expected to cause great damage to commercial television. 1995
Negroponte (MIT) sees the Internet as the most used medium for the year 2000. 1998
it was believed that DVD player sales would be sluggish. The initial forecasts for sales of TiVo boxes (1999) were several times higher than actual sales.
The assumption of Businessweek "Blogs Will Change Your Business" (2005) also proved to be largely wrong.
