Miraculous increase in readers at the Basler Zeitung

Mach Basic 2012-2, which shows unexpectedly clear developments for some titles, also has a surprise in store that is not significant and therefore hardly noticeable at first: The Basler Zeitung (Baz) now reaches 163,000 readers, an increase of 2,000 readers over the previous year. This gentle growth, which lies within the statistical blur, is so surprising because it indicates an upward trend, when everyone expects a loss in view of the media turbulence on the Rhine bend.

Subscription cancellations after sale to Tettamanti & Co.

As a reminder: In 2010, shortly after the sale of Basler Zeitung Medien (BZM) to Tito Tettamanti and Martin Wagner, BaZ reported 175,000 readers. After Tettamanti and Wagner canceled numerous free subscriptions for retired BZM employees, brought in Christoph Blocher's consulting firm, installed Markus Somm as editor-in-chief, and finally "handed over" BZM to Moritz Suter, there was an initial wave of protests in Basel with subscription cancellations. Accordingly, the Baz's reach fell to 161,000 readers (-8 percent) a year ago. Shortly thereafter, Tettamanti and Blocher officially took the helm again at BZM, which again triggered subscription cancellations. At the same time, the newspaper market in northwestern Switzerland was on the move: Tageswoche was launched, and AZ Medien vigorously expanded Basellandschaftliche Zeitung and Sonntag in Basel. Based on all these events, a further erosion of readership at the Baz would have been only logical. But what a miracle: it actually increased by 1.2 percent.

Cleverly threaded

The Wemf documents show how this was possible: According to them, the Baz does not report its new Sunday edition as an independent title like other publishers, but only considers it as a seventh edition. This has consequences for the calculation of the number of readers per issue.

But first things first: The survey period for Mach Basic 2012-2 lasted from April 6, 2011 to March 25, 2012. In the last quarter of this period, specifically on January 8, 2012, the Baz launched its Sunday edition, which it distributed free of charge with a circulation of 240,000 copies for three months, i.e. until the end of the survey. Thanks to this huge initial circulation, the Baz generated an estimated 480,000 readers each Sunday (two readers per copy), around three times more than with the weekday edition.

Because the Baz now considers the Sunday edition to be only the seventh issue, Wemf adds the many Sunday readers to the weekday readers, which pushes the average per issue up. In other words, the Sunday editions could even slightly overcompensate for the weekday losses.

But how much weekday loss could the Sunday editions absorb? Model calculations by Werbewoche show: 480,000 readers per Sunday edition can compensate for a loss of up to 19,000 readers per weekday edition. In this case, the Baz without a Sunday edition would still have 142,000 readers per edition (-12 percent). But even if one calculates more cautiously and assumes only one reader per Sunday edition, there would still be a loss of about 9,000 readers per edition during the week (-6 percent). So the truth is probably somewhere in between.

Downward trend, but rather no significant loss

To be fair, the current loss is probably closer to 9000 readers. Several indications point to this. One of them is that the Sunday edition of the Baz, although distributed free of charge, met with relatively little response from the population of northwestern Switzerland and was rejected in many places. And in places where it was distributed, it was left lying around in large numbers. It is also clear that the circulation of the Sunday edition, to which subscribers subscribed, dropped significantly after the expiration of the three-month promotional period and was lower than the circulation of the weekday Baz. In short, the Sunday edition was probably more likely to get one reader per copy in the start-up phase than two, which reduces its compensation potential in the Wemf study. Thus, the loss of the weekday Baz is unlikely to have been significant, but contrary to what the Wemf figures lead us to believe, a further downward movement can be assumed.

Wemf confirms loss

It should also be noted that the WW model calculation contains several unknown variables and is therefore based on various assumptions. For a more precise calculation, additional information from Wemf would be necessary, but is not available there. Roland Gauglhofer, responsible for Mach Basic, merely confirms the basic assumption: "Without a Sunday edition, a loss of readers could be expected for the weekday Baz," he says. Gauglhofer goes on to confirm that the Baz is the only Swiss title to offset its Sunday readers against its weekday reach. However, he says this is perfectly in line with the rules of the Mach study.

Just a "pleasant side effect"?

And what do they say at Baz? CEO Roland Steffen, who has since stepped down, denies having "tricked" in any way. It was never the intention to push up the weekday reach of the Baz by means of the Sunday edition and to present it better than it is. The fact that it has now turned out this way "is at best a pleasant side effect," says Steffen. Incidentally, the Sunday edition had always been referred to as the seventh edition of the Basler Zeitung, never as an independent Sunday title. "Moreover, we only launched the Sunday edition because of the attack by AZ Medien and because it seemed to us to be the last reasonably realistic growth opportunity for the Baz."

The "trick" is useful for a year

What reach figures can we expect from the Baz in the future? None in the short term, because Wemf will not be publishing any readership figures for a while next spring due to the switch to the new Mach 3 reach study. This means that the Baz can operate with the current figure for a year. Wemf will not publish the new Mach 3 reach figures until fall 2013, but they will then no longer be comparable with today's figures due to the currency break. So BZM is doubly lucky. Or it chose a super timing for its "trick". Only the circulation figures, which will be published in a few weeks, could still cloud the picture somewhat, since they provide more information about the real situation of the Baz and its Sunday edition.

By the way: Since July 1, 2012, BZM has automatically delivered the Sunday edition to all Baz subscribers and since then also charges more for the subscription. Originally, you could subscribe to the Sunday edition separately (or do without it). The new compulsory subscription will probably result in a few more cancellations at the end of the year, but in the longer term it will help the Sunday edition to achieve a more stable circulation.

Markus Knöpfli