Positive growth forecast for the German online display advertising market

The online display advertising market is on course for growth in 2024. The Online-Vermarkterkreis (OVK) is forecasting an increase of 7.9% to EUR 5.94 billion. This brings the magic threshold of EUR 6 billion in sales within reach. This forecast is driven by two areas: Programmatic advertising will generate just under three quarters of revenue at EUR 4.4 billion. Online video advertising will continue to grow disproportionately at 24% to just under EUR 2.8 billion. Online audio advertising is also continuing to establish itself successfully. It recorded growth of 10% in 2023. For 2024, the OVK even expects growth of 12% to €140 million.

In 2023, online display advertising generated revenue of EUR 5.5 billion, which corresponds to growth of 6.4%. This exceeds the forecasts for last year, which were 4.6% in March and 5.6% in September. The fourth quarter in particular contributed to this growth with an increase of 21% compared to the same period last year.

For Rasmus Giese, Chairman of the OVK (United Internet Media), the results for 2023 and the forecast for 2024 are cause for optimism: "Online display advertising strengthens branding and performance in equal measure. Its indispensability is particularly evident in the development at the end of the year, when we exceeded our own expectations. According to the OVK forecast, the online display advertising market can go one better in 2024. If market conditions do not change fundamentally, we have our sights firmly set on the six billion mark."

Willingness to pay for editorial content on the Internet remains stable

The trend study associated with the OVK forecast deals with the topic of paid content for the second time. The proportion of users who are willing to pay for editorial content on the internet has remained stable compared to 2021. It currently stands at 22% (2021: 21%). The biggest increase compared to 2021 was recorded by monthly flat rates, which grew by a third. 12% of respondents stated that they paid monthly for editorial content on the internet last year (2021: 9%).

Users who are willing to pay tend to be younger, better educated and have a higher income. Among them, the willingness to pay for digital subscriptions has increased. However, the proportion of those who are not willing to pay for editorial content on the internet has increased from 45% to 51% in the last two years. Financial and economic reasons as well as the existence of print subscriptions in the household play a role here. The study also shows that advertising is still indispensable for financing the offerings and is accepted by users. Two out of three people who do not pay for online content agree to mandatory consent for website cookies. Among paying users, the figure is as high as 74 percent.

"Paid content continues to be a polarizing topic," says Steffen Bax, Deputy Chairman of the OVK (iq digital) and adds: "At the same time, the trend study underlines that advertising is indispensable for financing editorial content. This is the only way that news content will remain free of charge and accessible to everyone in the future. The overwhelming majority of users accept this, which this study also underlines once again."

Methodology and study:

Forecast: In the second half of 2019, the Online-Vermarkterkreis (OVK) in the Bundesverband Digitale Wirtschaft (BVDW) e.V., together with experts from the market research company Statista, developed a new model to determine the size of the display advertising market in Germany. It is based on a holistic approach that provides a valid overall market estimate from a combination of the reported revenues for digital advertising of the companies organized in the OVK and an analysis of primary and secondary data for other companies in the digital advertising industry. Turnover from the following providers and platforms is taken into account: OVK members, German publishers and marketers not organized in the OVK, international platforms, intermediaries. The OVK advertising statistics include all forms of in-page and in-stream formats, including out-stream in desktop and mobile. Keyword-based paid search, affiliate or newsletter marketing, advertising for apps in the app store and in-game advertising are not included in the model.

About the trend study: The sample consisted of 3,000 users of digital media services. The survey was conducted in October 2023. The results are online-representative according to gender, age and education.