Retail trade: GfK publishes figures for the first quarter
The GfK Market Monitor for the Swiss retail sector reported a 1.6 percent decline in the first quarter of 2019 compared with the same period a year earlier.
Food/near food and non-food were down, while non-food markets performed slightly better at just -1%. However, the negative trend in the food/near food market is mainly due to the "Easter effect", as Easter was already in March in 2018 and falls in the second quarter of 2019 in April. March sales overshadowed the pleasing slight increase at the beginning of this year with the negative development compared to the previous year, which had a negative impact on the overall result for the first quarter.
Do-it and leisure are two non-food areas that are showing positive developments and are growing compared to the previous year, which can be attributed to spring-like weather in March. The Fashion segment remains the most negative, although the decline has slowed somewhat compared to previous quarters.
Nevertheless, the conditions for growth are generally in place, albeit somewhat cautiously. The Federal Statistical Office expects the national and international economy to gradually gain momentum in 2019. International demand for Swiss products is weakening and the export economy is losing momentum. The forecast for population growth remains positive at around +1%. In addition, the Federal Statistical Office is forecasting inflation of between 0.5% and 0.7% for 2019 and 2020; in March 2019, inflation was 0.7% compared to the same month in the previous year. In addition, the unemployment rate in 2018 reached a seven-year low of 2.6%.
