"Deviations of the forecast from the ACTUAL values is not acceptable to us".

Roland Ehrler, Director of the Swiss Advertisers Association (SWA).MK Comparisons between the forecast values from the TV marketers and the actual performance values show a discrepancy. What are the reasons for this?ROLAND EHRLER For the first time, marketers were able to prepare forecasts for the same time periods based on the previous year's data from the new TV panel. These forecasts are influenced by various factors. These include, for example, the program, the weather or important events. At the same time, however, it is also a kind of bet that the marketers make. They forecast how many people will watch their programs on day x and at time y, and the TV customer plans its advertising expenditure accordingly.MK The differences are particularly great in German-speaking Switzerland. What works better in French-speaking Switzerland?EHRLER The simplest explanation would be the difference in weather between the two parts of the country. But that is not the case. However, we have noticed that the TV forecasts from marketer Goldbach Media were particularly inaccurate in German-speaking Switzerland. The question now is whether the factors for better forecasts were not known enough or whether there are other reasons behind this? The good ratings of RTS or TF 1 in French-speaking Switzerland prove that realistic forecasts are certainly possible. RTS Deux even exceeded its forecasts in two out of three months!MK What are the disadvantages for the advertising client if he achieves a lower advertising pressure than planned?EHRLER If the advertiser assumes that the majority of TV forecasts are correct, he will not achieve the desired advertising pressure during the term of his advertising campaign. As a result, the impact of their campaign may lose strength or even fall below a certain impact threshold.MK What solutions are there to improve the accuracy of TV forecasts?EHRLER Firstly, we need to address the inaccurate TV forecasts. We are now doing this together with the media agency Konnex. We are also calling on TV marketers to continuously improve the quality of their forecasts. The deviations between the forecast and actual values are simply too great for many broadcasters today and are therefore unacceptable to us.MK The SWA aims to regularly examine the topic of TV forecasts and inform the advertising market about them. How exactly do these studies work?EHRLER We want to prepare an evaluation at least every three months and inform our members about it. We are aware that the pricing target groups of SRG stations or TF 1, for example, are not based on 15-49 year olds but on 15-59 year olds. However, since many advertising clients plan in the classic 15-49 target group, a comparison on this basis is a pragmatic approach to present the complex topic as fairly as possible. We are already looking forward to the next evaluation. Interview: Simon WolaninYou can read more on this topic in the SWA article "The TV forecasts with the new TV panel are suboptimal"