Four visions for retailers

Retail trade In ten years, the
Swiss people shop differently. Where, how and with what consequences for the
Industry? The new GDI study "Retail Trade Switzerland 2015" takes a closer look at the
The GDI, in collaboration with Coop,
Migros-GenossenschaftsBund, Denner, Manor, Promarca, Rewe Switzerland and
interviews, expert and scenario workshops to explore the future of the
Swiss retail trade for discussion.
According to the experts, the main drivers of change will be the ageing population.
society, the increasing scarcity of resources, the growing gap
between rich and poor, the importance of information and
networking technologies as well as liberalization, globalization and
growing intensity of international competition. It became clear,
that the main competitor of the retail trade is not the retail trade
itself, but the freely disposable income, which, due to rising
Expenses for health insurance, pensions, taxes or energy
will decline significantly.
Growth is only possible for traditional retail if it can be combined with
its core competencies internationally or into sectors outside the industry.
Markets diversified. Due to the IT revolution, the
provider no longer focuses on his view of "our price" and his product
but the customer relationship and its "my price". Four extremes
The top managers have drawn up scenarios for the future:

The four scenarios

Reglobalization:
Liberalization brings standardization and internationalization of the
Offer. Biggest losers: the agricultural sector and those in Switzerland
manufacturing industry and independent retailers in small towns
and rural areas. The winners will be the strongest international
be specialty stores (category killers) and the food suppliers who, like
Category killers work (Waldi: merger of Walmart and Aldi).
Migros and Coop will shrink, Denner will no longer exist, Manor
is retreating to the big cities. But there are also many
Niches that will flourish and give rise to new concepts. The
Customers benefit in particular from low prices and a large
Variety of offers.

Break scenario: The Swiss
The retail trade and suppliers are evading the
globalization processes and isolate themselves from their environment. However
the long-term consequences are negative for all market participants. Because
is the big winner as the typical Swiss discounter.

Rollercoaster: Switzerland rides
continuously through the strongly fluctuating global economy. Swissness,
as a brand for everything, demarcation and integration also determine the
retail landscape in Switzerland. Swiss providers can
are under increasing pressure, however, as the free market
disposable income of consumers and households falls significantly.

Regio patterns: In this
scenario, regional providers can flourish across borders,
However, the growing dominance of China as a producer of goods and
India as a service center. What the major distributors in the
Switzerland, thanks to the opening up to the EU they can
compensate. Suppliers with a large catchment area such as shopping centers
get the international simplified competition across the border
massively.

Luca Aloisi