Big Tech Advertising Revenue: Meta and Google Exceed Forecasts

The first quarter of 2026 has yielded a clear picture: Big Tech’s advertising revenues are trending in very different directions. Meta and Google Search significantly exceeded expectations, Amazon met forecasts, while YouTube once again fell short of projections. This is shown in the latest Earnings Debrief analysis by Warc Media, which compares the actual advertising revenues of the major tech companies with the company’s global advertising spend forecasts.

Methodology: Two million data points as a basis

Warc Media’s benchmarks are based on a proprietary neural network comprising more than two million data points. This allows the platforms’ reported quarterly results to be accurately compared against projected growth rates. The three companies analyzed—Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon—together account for 58 percent of all global advertising spending outside of China.

James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting at Warc, comments: «The next phase of growth is likely to favor those who can turn AI from a buzzword into a measurable commercial advantage. As always in advertising, rhetoric is plentiful; revenue is indelible.»

Meta Exceeds Advertising Forecasts with Extensive Use of AI

Meta generated $55.0 billion in advertising revenue in the first quarter of 2026—compared to a forecast of $54.1 billion. This represents a 2.3 percentage point outperformance relative to the Warc benchmark. According to the analysis, improved targeting mechanisms, automated purchasing behavior, and faster optimization cycles are helping Meta translate its AI infrastructure into measurable results.

CFO Susan Li reported that improvements in Instagram rankings during the first quarter had led to a 10 percent increase in time spent on Reels. CEO Mark Zuckerberg pointed to strong trends across all Meta apps and an all-time high in engagement with video content. According to the press release, the results indicate that Meta is becoming increasingly effective at capturing, monetizing, and capitalizing on user attention.

Google Search: Big Tech's ad revenue 5.4 points above target

Alphabet was the true standout of the quarter: Total advertising revenue rose 19.1 percent to $60.4 billion—5.4 percentage points above the Warc benchmark of 13.7 percent growth. CEO Sundar Pichai explained that AI «illuminates every aspect of the business,» and that products like AI Overviews and AI Mode are bringing users back to search more frequently.

However, performance within Alphabet’s advertising portfolio was mixed this quarter. YouTube’s advertising revenue of approximately $9.98 billion was about $72 million below the projected figure of $10.05 billion—marking the second consecutive quarter in which YouTube fell short of Warc’s expectations. This suggests that strong engagement does not always translate into corresponding advertising revenue. Google’s Display Network also posted a steeper decline than forecast: down 3.9 percent compared to an expected decline of 2.3 percent.

Amazon: Advertising business in line with expectations

Amazon’s advertising services revenue of $17.2 billion was largely in line with expectations for the first quarter (down 0.4 percentage points from the Warc benchmark). During its earnings call, the company emphasized its full-funnel approach and positioned itself as a platform for brands of all sizes. According to the analysis, the retail media business continues to benefit from attributes that are attractive to advertisers: purchase intent, closed-loop measurement, and inventory in close proximity to the transaction. Streaming inventory and AI-powered creative tools are also expected to expand Amazon’s reach beyond the lower funnel.

Platforms with first-party data and automation have the edge

An overall look at the quarter shows that advertisers are increasingly turning to platforms that combine reach, first-party data, and automation. Amazon’s growth rate significantly exceeds Warc’s forecast for global retail media spending in the first quarter of 2026 (up 12.3 percent). Meta also noticeably outperforms Warc’s benchmark for social media (up 20.3 percent). In contrast, growth in traditional channels remains modest: According to the Warc forecast, total TV spending is growing by just 1.2 percent, while the overall market is growing by 11.1 percent.

The analysis underscores that AI is no longer viewed merely as a strategic promise in the advertising industry, but increasingly as a measurable driver of growth—at least in areas where it simultaneously improves engagement and monetization.

The full earnings debrief for the first quarter of 2026 is available at Warc Media: https://www.warc.com/media