Study: SRG polls had no influence on the outcome of the vote
The opinion polls conducted by SRG prior to the vote on the minaret initiative in November 2009 likely had no influence on voters’ behavior. This is the conclusion reached by a new in-depth study commissioned by the SRG Conference of Editor-in-Chiefs.
The polls probably also had no effect on the mobilization or demobilization of voters from one camp or the other, according to a communiqué issued on Tuesday. A "democratically damaging" effect of the polls can be ruled out. The scientific analysis was carried out by political scientists Markus Freitag (University of Konstanz), Thomas Milic and Adrian Vatter (both University of Bern). For the upcoming federal vote on September 26, SRG will therefore have two trend surveys conducted and published by the GfS Bern Institute. In addition, regular election barometers will again be conducted in the run-up to the 2011 federal elections.
Due to the discrepancy between the survey results and the actual outcome of the vote on the minaret initiative at the end of November 2009, SRG temporarily dispensed with trend surveys and initiated external clarifications. An initial methodological review revealed that the surveys had been conducted according to the best knowledge and expertise available today. A second in-depth study, which examined media coverage and the political environment prior to the vote, concluded that the survey had been conducted in a climate of opinion that strongly favored a "socially desirable" response behavior by supporters of the initiative. The study also showed that supporters of the initiative had concealed their approval either by refusing to provide information or by giving false answers. Based on these findings, the SRG decided in April 2010, to publish trend surveys again and, in the case of sensitive proposals, to take publicity and methodological measures in future.
Due to the discrepancy between the survey results and the actual outcome of the vote on the minaret initiative at the end of November 2009, SRG temporarily dispensed with trend surveys and initiated external clarifications. An initial methodological review revealed that the surveys had been conducted according to the best knowledge and expertise available today. A second in-depth study, which examined media coverage and the political environment prior to the vote, concluded that the survey had been conducted in a climate of opinion that strongly favored a "socially desirable" response behavior by supporters of the initiative. The study also showed that supporters of the initiative had concealed their approval either by refusing to provide information or by giving false answers. Based on these findings, the SRG decided in April 2010, to publish trend surveys again and, in the case of sensitive proposals, to take publicity and methodological measures in future.
