Can consumer conversations become virtual? Opportunities and risks of a new development in market research
Artificial intelligence opens up new possibilities for market research: Today, it is possible to simulate consumer conversations, model reactions, and test ideas in a short amount of time. What used to require time-consuming interviews with real people can now be done, at least in part, virtually. But how reliable are such simulations—and in what areas are real-life experiences still irreplaceable? A look at the opportunities and limitations of virtual consumer interviews.
Many marketing decisions are based on assumptions about how consumers think, feel or decide. However, only a small proportion of companies attempt to systematically check these assumptions. It is estimated that only around 15 percent of companies conduct any market research at all. The vast majority work with experience, intuition or internal assessments. Where market research is used, it generally takes two different forms. The first is quantitative market research. Here, standardized online surveys are conducted, often with large samples.
The results provide statistical patterns and enable statements to be made about larger groups of consumers. The second form is qualitative market research. This is not about large numbers, but about conversations with individual people. Interviews or group discussions are used to try to understand how consumers experience products, how they make decisions or why they react to certain messages. Both approaches fulfill different tasks. Quantitative studies provide orientation about markets and structures. Qualitative discussions help to understand how people think and experience things. But it is precisely these conversations that could change. With the help of artificial intelligence, it is now possible to create virtual interlocutors who respond like consumers. Interviews can be simulated, reactions modeled and scenarios played out. What used to take weeks can suddenly be done in just a few hours. This raises a new question: can consumer conversations become virtual?
New possibilities
This development actually opens up interesting opportunities. Simulations can help to test hypotheses more quickly, gain initial assessments or test ideas at an early stage. Such tools can create a lower barrier to entry, especially for companies that have hardly conducted any market research to date. Decisions can be prepared more quickly, scenarios can be run through and possible reactions can be better assessed. In this sense, artificial intelligence can help to make market research more accessible and efficient.
The limit of simulation
Nevertheless, it is worth keeping one fundamental difference in mind. Virtual interviews work with simulations. They draw on existing knowledge, known patterns and statistical probabilities. This results in answers that often seem surprisingly plausible. But as convincing as these simulations may be, they remain simulations. Artificial intelligence can describe how consumers are likely to react. It cannot experience them. In qualitative conversations in particular, important insights often arise at moments that no one has planned in advance: when someone hesitates, relates a personal experience or is surprised by what they say. Such moments are difficult to predict - and even more difficult to simulate.
A new distance
Another point deserves attention. In quantitative online research, clients see the results, but not the actual process of generating the responses. For many companies, data collection remains a black box that they can only check to a limited extent. If qualitative interviews are increasingly replaced by simulations in the future, this distance could become even greater. Companies would make decisions based on answers without having experienced the moment in which these answers were created. Not out of malice, but for one simple reason: efficiency.
Between efficiency and experience
Artificial intelligence will undoubtedly change market research. There is much to suggest that some of today's methods will be automated or at least supported in the future. This makes it all the more important to make a simple distinction. Simulation can be a valuable tool. But knowledge is often gained where people share their experiences. Perhaps the future of market research therefore lies not in the decision between man and machine, but in another question: where does simulation help - and where do we still need to talk to real people? After all, markets are not ultimately made up of data points. They are made up of people. Incidentally, the better our models of consumers become, the more important an old skill could become again - simply listening when a person tells us what they are really experiencing.
Laura Colledani and Klaus Ammon have more than 40 years of combined experience in consumer research and marketing research. Over the years, they have developed a keen sense of what moves people - even beyond the numbers. Both authors advocate a communication culture that listens before it broadcasts. With the new approach of consumer listening management tools, they want to support marketing managers in not only questioning consumers in the traditional way, but also entering into a genuine relationship with them.
