Second Corona wave weighs on retail trade in January

Overall, retail sales in Switzerland in January 2021 - adjusted for sales and holiday effects - fell by 0.9 percent compared to the same month last year, as the Federal Statistical Office FSO announced on Monday based on provisional figures. Adjusted for prices, i.e. in real terms, the decline was slightly lower at 0.5 percent.

However, the figures for the previous month are significantly worse. Seasonally adjusted sales fell by 4.9 percent in nominal terms compared with December 2020, and by as much as 5.3 percent in real terms.

Very different industry development

However, not all sectors were equally affected by the decline. For example, the retail trade in food, beverages and tobacco recorded a nominal year-on-year increase in sales of 13.7 percent, while the non-food sector registered a drop of 10.4 percent. In particular, the sectors "other goods (clothing, pharmacies, watches and jewelry)" (-19.2%), "publishing products, sports equipment and toys" (-14.6%) and the "other household appliances, textiles, DIY and home furnishings" sector (-7.2%) were particularly affected by the measures imposed by the authorities.

On the other hand, the sectors "Information and communication technology equipment" (+32.3%) and "Market stalls, mail order and internet trade" (+21.8%) reported positive sales figures. Service stations also made a significant difference. Indeed, on an adjusted basis, retail trade excluding service stations recorded slight growth (+1.0%) in January 2021 compared to January 2020, according to FSO figures. This resulted in a 22.2 percent drop in sales for service stations, according to the FSO.

On a prior-month basis, the picture is somewhat different again, with both main groups suffering declining sales. In the food trade, however, this was relatively small at -1.2 percent, while the non-food sector lost 11.0 percent. The biggest drop among the sub-sectors was suffered by the "other goods" group (-15.3%), while goods from the information and communications technology sector were the only ones in stronger demand (+1.8%).

Big ones come through the crisis better

As the store closures imposed by the authorities in January continued throughout February, the figures for the past month are also likely to have been weak. However, March will probably look much better again, as all retailers will be able to reopen their stores from this week onwards - after a total of six weeks of closure. Catch-up effects and high discounts in many stores should then ensure very high sales in March.

The retail trade turnover statistics of the FSO are based on a random sample of around 4,000 companies. It is a monthly survey, with small businesses being asked for their monthly sales figures on a quarterly basis.

This is of interest insofar as the development between the large and small retailers was very different last year. According to the SFSO figures, the Swiss retail sector as a whole recorded a nominal increase in sales of 0.9 percent in the Corona year 2020; in real terms, i.e. excluding inflation, the increase was as much as 1.7 percent.

By contrast, the figures from market research company GfK had shown an increase of almost 8 percent for the year as a whole in the retail sector. However, the GfK survey only takes into account the 40 largest retailers with a total sales volume of around 50 percent. And the BFS figures also showed a plus of 7.7 percent for the 50 largest companies, and a minus of 8.3 percent for the others. In other words, the smaller retailers have come through the Corona crisis much less well than the large ones. (SDA)